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Prediction markets for Party for Democracy

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

42.09%chance

555181377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2731

1983

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

73.72%chance

7511924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2338

983

Will the next Republican victory lead to an unprecedented consolidation of power?

Nov 5, 3:49 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

5.6%chance

345337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

941

If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?

Jan 20, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35%chance

372571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

599

Will martial law be declared in Taiwan before 2026?

Dec 5, 10:06 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.76%chance

102262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2403

416

Which political parties will be part of the next dutch governing coalition?

Jul 6, 2:50 PMAug 1, 2:40 PM

61804

OptionProbability

Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)

People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)

GroenLinks–PvdA

JA21

Democrats 66 (D66)

Christian Union (CU)

Reformed Political Party (SGP)

Volt Netherlands

Party for the Animals (PvdD)

New Social Contract (NSC)

Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB)

Socialist Party (SP)

Party for Freedom (PVV)

Denk

Forum for Democracy (FvD)

81

80

69

46

40

40

40

40

25

18

18

17

12

12

4

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

Will Donald Trump call another democratically elected leader of a country a dictator before the end of his current term?

Feb 28, 11:59 AMJan 31, 9:59 PM

74%chance

27941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

59

When will Viktor Orbán's rule end?

Mar 15, 1:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12658

OptionProbability

2026 - 2027

2030 - 2031

Before 2026

2032 - 2033

2034 - 2035

2028 - 2029

After 2035

Other

74

9

4

3

3

2

2

2

Will Canada sign the Framework Convention on AI before 2026?

Sep 9, 7:23 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.55%chance

5400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

807

JA21 wins at least 4 seats at the 2025 Dutch Elections?

Jun 23, 8:58 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

89.38%chance

6342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

290

34

Next Danish Election: Which pairs of parties will govern together or be in opposition together [read description]

Mar 19, 8:54 PMJan 11, 7:59 AM

2270

OptionProbability

Social Democrats & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Venstre

Social Democrats & Moderates

Social Democrats & Green Left

Venstre & Moderates

Venstre & Green Left

Venstre & Liberal Alliance

Venstre & Conservative People's Party

Venstre & Danish Social Liberal Party

Moderates & Green Left

Moderates & Liberal Alliance

Moderates & Conservative People's Party

Moderates & Danish Social Liberal Party

Green Left & Liberal Alliance

Green Left & Conservative People's Party

Green Left & Danish Social Liberal Party

Liberal Alliance & Conservative People's Party

Liberal Alliance & Danish Social Liberal Party

Conservative People's Party & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Liberal Alliance

Social Democrats & Conservative People's Party

66

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

34

34

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