Peace Now News

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Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?

Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia

Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026

Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030

Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2024 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

123

Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

A country declares war on Israel

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Egypt formally declares war on another country

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Successful military coup in Venezuela

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

Sudanese Civil War ends

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Iran undergoes a regime change

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Iran loses territory

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

China formally declares war on another country

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

A country declares war on United States

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

USA leaves NATO

Any country leaves NATO

Israel loses territory

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Iranian troops enter Israel

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

United States formally declares war on another country

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

United States formally declares war on Iran

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

China invades Taiwan

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Humans will extinct

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

China sanctioned by US + Europe

Taiwan blockaded before invasion

Japan allows use of airbases

CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

Japan attacked by Chinese

China attacks Japan

Malacca Strait blockaded

Guam attacked by Chinese

Oil shortages in China

US destroys TSMC factories

US military intervention

Japanese military intervention

Taiwan surrenders

Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

Philippines allows use of airbases

Philippines attacked by Chinese

US combat troops in Taiwan

US aircraft carrier sunk

Chinese mainland bombed

Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

Food shortages in China

South Korea allows use of airbases

South Korean military intervention

Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

European military intervention

Indian military intervention

China attacks South Korea

Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Tactical nuclear weapon used

Post a Tweet

Deny Climate Change

Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

Bomb Iran

Increase US oil production

Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

Enrich himself & his family financially

Shake hands with Putin

Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

Start a war

Play golf

Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

Shake hands with Xi Jinping

Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

Exercise

Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

Attend at least one current state leader funeral

Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

Get impeached

Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

Shake hands with Donald Tusk

Pardon himself

Have a net approval below -20% at any point

Withdraw support for Ukraine

Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

Leave office early

Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

Attempt to stay in power for a third term

Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

End SBA direct lending

Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

Reference "Situational Awareness"

Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

Eat a hamnhrb

Pass away

Attempt or claim to seize direct military control of DC via the Insurrection Act, martial law, or similar

Pardon SBF

Make America Great Again

Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president

Die

Order a nuclear strike

Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

Ban TikTok

Withdraw the US from NATO

Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

Cry on camera

Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

Direct the killing of a political opponent

Be removed via the 25th Amendment

Do another Home Alone cameo

Buy Greenland

Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more

human steps on moon again

fable (2026) releases

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

trump dies

Saw XI Releases in USA

grok 6 release date

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

biden dies

stripe ipo happens

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

polymarket or kalshi ipo

windows 12 announcement is made

Netanyahu out as PM of israel

Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory

Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card

putin or zelensky lose power

Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)

yoko ono passes away

anthropic stock able to be bought on nyse

noam chomsky passes away

commercial airline hijacked

discord IPO happens

haunted chocolatier release date known

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

playstation 6 announced

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

manifold raises more money

tropico 7 releases

twitter/x releases x mail to some users

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

Cy Young award winner announced

Third dune movie officially announced

beyonce releases an album

apple announces a smart ring

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27

nobel peace prize winner announced

Hades 3 announced (game)

apple announces a touchscreen laptop

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

coup in an african country

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

fourth Knives Out movie announced

playboi carti releases an album

new Doctor Who showrunner announced (after RTD departure)

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

llama 5 release date

iphone fold release date known

First game of the MLB World Series starts

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

grok 5 release date

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

the first Solar eclipse of the year

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

Patriot Games ending day

Patriot Games starting day

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

fifa world cup - last game ends

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

Taylor swift gets married

ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda

English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)

Kier Starmer out

alan greenspan passes away

Manifest 2026 starts

spacex IPO happens

drake releases an album

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

another trump assassination attempt

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

artemis II mission launches

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

new iphone releases (in the USA)

trump removes a cabinet member

First Apple Event of the year

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

manifold launches real money trading

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)

First Nintendo direct of the year

US sends at least $10B of arms to Taiwan

GDP per capita still >2x China in 2050

Successful invasion by PRC

Military conflict with PRC involving at least 1 million deaths on each side

Peaceful unification with PRC

Unsuccessful invasion by PRC

Formal diplomatic relations with the US

Taiwan elects pro-unification government

Formal diplomatic relations with any country that simultaneously has formal diplomatic relations with the PRC for at least 1 month

Officially joining the UN

Taiwan acquires nuclear weapons

Rebeca Grynspan [high-level UN official and former vice president of Costa Rica]

Rafael Grossi [Argentinian diplomat - director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency]

Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés [former president of the UN General Assembly and former minister of Ecuador]

Michelle Bachelet [former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and President of Chile]

Other

Mia Mottley [Prime Minister of Barbados]

Juan Manuel Santos [former Colombian president – a Nobel peace Prize laureate]

Alicia Bárcena [Mexico’s foreign affairs secretary]

Krantz does not hire Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030

Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and both Krantz and Sheehan win the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050

Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and Sheehan (but not Krantz) wins the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050

Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and Krantz (but not Sheehan) wins the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050

There is no 2026 FIFA World Peace Prize

Other

Vladimir Putin

Donald Trump

Mohammed bin Salman al Saud

A MOU is signed to begin negotiations

Trump allows Iran to keep its Uranium

The US announces it is walking away from a deal

The Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened without fees

The war restarts

Trump allows Iran to charge fees on ships in the Strait

Iran announces it is walking away from a deal

A final peace deal is signed

Israel agrees to stop fighting in Lebanon

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.