Peace Now News

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Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?

Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia

Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026

Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030

Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2024 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)

China sanctioned by US + Europe

Taiwan blockaded before invasion

Japan allows use of airbases

CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

Japan attacked by Chinese

China attacks Japan

Malacca Strait blockaded

Guam attacked by Chinese

Oil shortages in China

US destroys TSMC factories

US military intervention

Japanese military intervention

Taiwan surrenders

Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

Philippines allows use of airbases

Philippines attacked by Chinese

US combat troops in Taiwan

US aircraft carrier sunk

Chinese mainland bombed

Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

Food shortages in China

South Korea allows use of airbases

South Korean military intervention

Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

European military intervention

Indian military intervention

China attacks South Korea

Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Tactical nuclear weapon used

Post a Tweet

Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

Bomb Iran

Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

Enrich himself & his family financially

Shake hands with Putin

Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

Play golf

Shake hands with Xi Jinping

Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

Start a war

Deny Climate Change

Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

Increase US oil production

Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

Attend at least one current state leader funeral

Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

Exercise

Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

Shake hands with Donald Tusk

Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

Get impeached

Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

Pardon himself

Withdraw support for Ukraine

Have a net approval below -20% at any point

Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

Leave office early

Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

End SBA direct lending

Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

Reference "Situational Awareness"

Eat a hamnhrb

Pass away

Attempt to stay in power for a third term

Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

Pardon SBF

Make America Great Again

Order a nuclear strike

Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president

Die

Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

Ban TikTok

Withdraw the US from NATO

Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

Cry on camera

Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

Direct the killing of a political opponent

Be removed via the 25th Amendment

Buy Greenland

Do another Home Alone cameo

human steps on moon again

Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more

Saw XI Releases in USA

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

fable (2026) releases

trump dies

stripe ipo happens

biden dies

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

grok 6 release date

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

windows 12 announcement is made

Netanyahu out as PM of israel

Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world

trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card

putin or zelensky lose power

Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more

anthropic stock able to be bought on nyse

discord IPO happens

polymarket or kalshi ipo

haunted chocolatier release date known

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

yoko ono passes away

noam chomsky passes away

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

commercial airline hijacked

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

playstation 6 announced

new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)

manifold raises more money

tropico 7 releases

twitter/x releases x mail to some users

iphone fold release date known

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

Cy Young award winner announced

Third dune movie officially announced

beyonce releases an album

playboi carti releases an album

apple announces a smart ring

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27

nobel peace prize winner announced

Hades 3 announced (game)

apple announces a touchscreen laptop

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

Patriot Games ending day

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

First game of the MLB World Series starts

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

fourth Knives Out movie announced

Patriot Games starting day

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

the first Solar eclipse of the year

coup in an african country

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard

llama 5 release date

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

fifa world cup - last game ends

grok 5 release date

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

Taylor swift gets married

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)

Kier Starmer out

alan greenspan passes away

Manifest 2026 starts

spacex IPO happens

drake releases an album

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

another trump assassination attempt

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

artemis II mission launches

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

new iphone releases (in the USA)

English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more

trump removes a cabinet member

First Apple Event of the year

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

manifold launches real money trading

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)

First Nintendo direct of the year

US sends at least $10B of arms to Taiwan

GDP per capita still >2x China in 2050

Successful invasion by PRC

Military conflict with PRC involving at least 1 million deaths on each side

Peaceful unification with PRC

Unsuccessful invasion by PRC

Formal diplomatic relations with the US

Taiwan elects pro-unification government

Formal diplomatic relations with any country that simultaneously has formal diplomatic relations with the PRC for at least 1 month

Officially joining the UN

Taiwan acquires nuclear weapons

Rockstar Games officially releases Grand Theft Auto VI.

Only one of these will happen in 2026.

The Leader of a top-10 GDP country dies.

The executives/government coalitions in at least 3 top-10 GDP countries holds less than 50% of their national parliament at the same time.

The EU AI Act fully enters into force (key provisions enforced, not just passed).

A formal peace treaty is signed by Ukraine and Russia.

A peer-reviewed paper claims strong biosignatures on another planet or moon and is widely accepted (e.g., cited by NASA/ESA) as credible.

A new element is officially added to the periodic table.

A major social media platform completely bans the use of anonymous accounts.

A country formally declares the climate crisis a national security emergency.

A new country is officially recognized by the United Nations.

BRICS members, partners, candidates are involved on opposite sites of wars or military campaigns or military strikes or military actions on at least two separate occasions.

A country admits to the Nord Stream sabotage.

At least one of the following three countries is part of a war or military campaign or military strike or military action on either side. (North Korea, Turkmenistan, Eritrea)

A new European political party will start being represented in the European Parliament, OR an old European political party will stop being represented in the European Parliament.

None of these will happen in 2026.

A human lands on the Moon in a crewed mission.

Donald Trump leaves office

Peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine

Wikipedia adds a new state to list of recognized nuclear weapons states which stays for 24hrs+

Severance tv show airs last episode

Category 5 hurricane makes a direct hit on Miami

X 10.00 solar flare [or higher]

A massive blizzard causes widespread power outages which last for months in the Northeast

Viral Hemorrhagic Fever outbreak in the USA [100+ confirmed cases]

Winds of Winter is published

Taylor Swift gets divorced

Two-state solution between Israel and Palestine recognized by Israel

Rafael Grossi [Argentinian diplomat - director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency]

Rebeca Grynspan [high-level UN official and former vice president of Costa Rica]

Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés [former president of the UN General Assembly and former minister of Ecuador]

Michelle Bachelet [former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and President of Chile]

Other

Mia Mottley [Prime Minister of Barbados]

Juan Manuel Santos [former Colombian president – a Nobel peace Prize laureate]

Alicia Bárcena [Mexico’s foreign affairs secretary]

Krantz does not hire Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030

Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and both Krantz and Sheehan win the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050

Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and Sheehan (but not Krantz) wins the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050

Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and Krantz (but not Sheehan) wins the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050

There is no 2026 FIFA World Peace Prize

Other

Vladimir Putin

Donald Trump

Mohammed bin Salman al Saud

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.