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Top stories

Idaho Killer Kohberger Seeks Prison Wing Transfer After Sex Harassment Claims

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for People

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

88.09%chance

159141369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3721

947

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.13%chance

11958822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7987

4234

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.43%chance

14057666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18795

6906

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?

Jun 2, 8:04 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

1624734

OptionProbability

>= 100

>= 200

>= 300

>= 500

>= 800

>= 1300

>= 2100

95

93

89

79

60

21

10

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?

May 31, 4:36 AMJul 2, 5:59 AM

1122990

OptionProbability

>= 300

>= 500

>= 800

>= 1300

>= 2100

>= 3400

>= 5500

>= 8900

75

63

51

39

21

11

8

4

Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Aug 27, 10:44 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

1415931

OptionProbability

Stephen Grugett, Manifold and MNX

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi

Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket

Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the CFTC

Terry Duffy, CME

91

80

46

27

12

10

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

Nov 5, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5311901

OptionProbability

101-150

151-200

201-250

50-100

251-300

301-350

351-400

401-450

451-500

501+

42

30

8

5

3

3

3

2

2

2

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

In the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?

Jun 6, 8:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

225930

OptionProbability

0.001M-0.1M

>1000M but not all of humanity

0.1M-10M

10M-1000M

Other

All of humanity

41

14

13

12

11

9

Will Trump incarcerate or institutionalize trans people just for being trans?

Nov 18, 3:11 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

58.9%chance

405227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1911

1120

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

43.17%chance

223650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4443

3625

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

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