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Top stories

Idaho Killer Kohberger Seeks Prison Wing Transfer After Sex Harassment Claims

Authors

5

9 months ago

Prediction markets for People

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

81.55%chance

159140745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2658

1132

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.97%chance

11857524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9296

3502

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.18%chance

13746687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13320

9842

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?

Jun 2, 8:04 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

1423964

OptionProbability

>= 100

>= 200

>= 300

>= 500

>= 800

>= 1300

>= 2100

95

93

89

79

60

21

10

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?

May 31, 4:36 AMJul 2, 5:59 AM

1122990

OptionProbability

>= 300

>= 500

>= 800

>= 1300

>= 2100

>= 3400

>= 5500

>= 8900

75

63

51

39

21

11

8

4

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

Nov 5, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4710951

OptionProbability

101-150

151-200

201-250

50-100

251-300

301-350

351-400

401-450

451-500

501+

35

34

9

5

4

3

3

3

2

2

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

In the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?

Jun 6, 8:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

225930

OptionProbability

0.001M-0.1M

>1000M but not all of humanity

0.1M-10M

10M-1000M

Other

All of humanity

41

14

13

12

11

9

Will Trump incarcerate or institutionalize trans people just for being trans?

Nov 18, 3:11 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

58.9%chance

405227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1911

1120

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

32.74%chance

122181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5594

2925

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.8%chance

14722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

874

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

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