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Prediction markets for People
Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM
80%chance
159140672
OptionVotes
2490
1172
Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?
Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
4.28%chance
75107935
OptionVotes
47945
2368
[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?
Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
65.77%chance
11657018
OptionVotes
8894
3701
Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?
Jan 26, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
15.47%chance
5552571
OptionVotes
23161
4623
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
45.74%chance
13644436
OptionVotes
12658
10372
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
Jan 22, 3:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5.36%chance
2339329
OptionVotes
43888
3793
Delayed Social Security payments to at least 100,000 people before December 31, 2025
Feb 1, 9:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.94%chance
12933141
OptionVotes
23329
4872
OptionProbability
95
93
89
79
60
27
12
OptionProbability
75
63
51
39
21
11
8
4
Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM
44%chance
568669
OptionVotes
1047
854
In the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?
Jun 6, 8:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
225930
OptionProbability
41
14
13
12
11
9
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
68.45%chance
365
OptionVotes
4047
3968