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Prediction markets for Petro
🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Oct 11, 8:31 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM
6914534
OptionProbability
29
19
15
5
5
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
69
23
2
1
1
1
1
1
Will any of Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Caixa Economica Federal be privatized until EOY 2026?
Aug 25, 9:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
9.94%chance
62020
OptionVotes
3010
332
Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?
Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM
21.52%chance
151599
OptionVotes
1960
387
If Ukraine holds an election while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, who will win?
Mar 6, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30841
OptionProbability
46
23
8
8
7
7
OptionProbability
36
30
30
2
2
OptionProbability
58
18
15
7
2
Will "The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Sep 26, 6:51 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.16%chance
1150
OptionVotes
1150
978
Will US strategic petroleum reserve be over 80% of the July 2020 level by December 2029?
Jan 7, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
68.14%chance
431
OptionVotes
159
111
Will "Stanislav Petrov Quarterly Performance Review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Sep 27, 7:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
16%chance
224
OptionVotes
1022
874
Will "The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Sep 26, 7:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15%chance
112
OptionVotes
1011
933
Who will be the next minister of the Republic of Cyprus to leave their post?
Nov 21, 10:45 AMFeb 5, 9:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9