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Prediction markets for Politburo Standing Committee

Will there be a change in the members of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee by the end of 2025?

Oct 17, 2:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.35%chance

41221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

127

Will any member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP be removed from their position before Autumn 2027?

Nov 2, 12:26 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

57.86%chance

499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

95

85

Any current member of the CCP's Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) dies in a plane crash

Aug 23, 5:48 PMAug 13, 6:59 AM

23%chance

466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

58

Will Xi Jinping choose a successor in 2027?

Nov 2, 3:02 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

27.21%chance

551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

63

When will the first Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party to include a woman be chosen?

Mar 27, 3:12 AMJan 27, 3:59 PM

350

OptionProbability

2032

2037

2042

2047

2027

23

23

23

22

8

Will a 'civilian' Vice Chairman of Central Military Committee of the CCP be elected before Autumn 2032?

Nov 2, 1:14 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

40.34%chance

442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

84

Any current or past member of the CCP's Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) dies in a plane crash

Aug 23, 5:48 PMAug 13, 6:59 AM

32.06%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

71

Will Xi Jinping choose a successor in 2032?

Nov 2, 3:05 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

65.89%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

73

Will a 'civilian' Vice Chairman of Central Military Committee of the CCP be elected before Autumn 2027?

Nov 2, 1:11 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

60

42

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