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Top stories

President Ruto Signs County Public Finance Act 2023, Revenue Allocation Bill 2025 Allocating Ksh.415B and Grants Fiscal Autonomy

President Ruto Signs County Public Finance Act 2023, Revenue Allocation Bill 2025 Allocating Ksh.415B and Grants Fiscal Autonomy

Authors

3

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Political Parties

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

183129955

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

59

40

1

Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?

Jun 11, 5:57 AMJan 21, 11:59 AM

9.92%chance

9332899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2883

195

Which political party will be the "tough on AI" party?

Nov 11, 12:15 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

14119925

OptionProbability

The Democratic Party

No clear polarization by close date

The Republican Party

A newly-prominent third party

78

14

8

0

Which New Zealand political party leaders will be incumbent on the next Election Day?

Oct 31, 10:37 PMNov 1, 10:59 AM

254519

OptionProbability

David Seymour

Chlöe Swarbrick

Debbie Ngarewa-Packer

Winston Peters

Christopher Luxon

Chris Hipkins

Rawiri Waititi

Marama Davidson

James Shaw

92

92

82

81

80

80

79

62

1

Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)

Oct 27, 4:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.05%chance

172186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

945

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8%chance

131279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1610

902

Will the Forward Party become a meaningful actor in the US political scene?

Aug 2, 4:40 PMNov 7, 10:59 PM

3.55%chance

191066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

957

Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026?

Dec 23, 10:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

12985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1679

802

Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?

Feb 8, 10:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.64%chance

21561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1189

926

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.3%chance

21475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

908

Will a candidate who is not from a current major political party make it to a U.S. presidential election by 2052?

Aug 7, 7:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.76%chance

12287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

976

Will a comedian win the presidential nomination from either major US political party by 2040?

Oct 20, 4:49 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

72.53%chance

6142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

72

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