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Top stories

President Ruto Signs County Public Finance Act 2023, Revenue Allocation Bill 2025 Allocating Ksh.415B and Grants Fiscal Autonomy

President Ruto Signs County Public Finance Act 2023, Revenue Allocation Bill 2025 Allocating Ksh.415B and Grants Fiscal Autonomy

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Political Parties

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

210151951

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

60

39

1

Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?

Jun 11, 5:57 AMJan 21, 11:59 AM

8.65%chance

9333180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3052

177

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

3.39%chance

162844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3529

799

Which Estonian political parties will be in the coalition after the 2027 parliamentary election?

Aug 16, 2:45 PMMar 7, 9:59 PM

42326

OptionProbability

Estonian Reform Party (RE)

Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE)

Fatherland (I)

Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK)

The Right (PP)

Estonia 200 (E200)

Social Democratic Party (SDE)

Estonian Centre Party (KE)

Estonian Greens (EER)

36

31

27

27

27

27

25

25

7

Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)

Oct 27, 4:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.05%chance

172186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

945

Which Swedish political party will successfully form a government next?

Feb 11, 9:38 AMSep 19, 9:59 PM

91753

OptionProbability

Socialdemokraterna (Social democrats)

Moderaterna (Moderates)

Sverigedemokraterna (Swedish democrats)

Centerpartiet (Center party)

Liberalerna (Liberals)

Vänsterpartiet (Left party)

Kristdemokraterna (Christian democrats)

Miljöpartiet (Green party)

Other

74

15

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

Will Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections?

Nov 8, 6:44 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

11.97%chance

271548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026?

Dec 23, 10:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.8%chance

141021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

832

Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?

Feb 8, 10:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.64%chance

21561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1189

926

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.3%chance

21475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

908

What year do we see the emergence of a viable third political party in the US?

Feb 27, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7464

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2028

60

27

13

Will a candidate who is not from a current major political party make it to a U.S. presidential election by 2052?

Aug 7, 7:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.76%chance

12287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

976

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