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Top stories

President Ruto Signs County Public Finance Act 2023, Revenue Allocation Bill 2025 Allocating Ksh.415B and Grants Fiscal Autonomy

President Ruto Signs County Public Finance Act 2023, Revenue Allocation Bill 2025 Allocating Ksh.415B and Grants Fiscal Autonomy

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Political Parties

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

268219925

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

67

32

1

Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?

Jun 11, 5:57 AMJan 21, 11:59 AM

13.95%chance

15350635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2488

248

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

3.38%chance

172861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3546

798

Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)

Oct 27, 4:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.55%chance

172445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

895

Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026?

Dec 23, 10:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

181872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

771

Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?

Feb 8, 10:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.64%chance

21561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1189

926

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.52%chance

21478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

911

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2032?

Nov 8, 6:47 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

16382

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

54

44

2

Will a candidate who is not from a current major political party make it to a U.S. presidential election by 2052?

Aug 7, 7:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.76%chance

12287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

976

Which EU country will disqualify a major presidential candidate or a major political party next?

Mar 31, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13153

OptionProbability

Other

Germany

Finland

France (again)

Romania (again)

Poland

Austria

46

16

11

7

7

6

6

Which political party will the PM be from when a building taller than the Shard is built in the UK?

Sep 8, 11:07 PMSep 8, 11:07 PM

7144

OptionProbability

Labour

Reform

Conservatives

Other

Liberal Democrats

30

30

27

8

6

How much does firearm control and 2A rhetoric switch political parties?

Mar 4, 3:11 AMNov 2, 3:10 AM

30.76%chance

282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

63

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