OptionProbability
Inkling (or any Thinking Machines model)
Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)
Gemini 4 Carbon
GPT-6.2 Astra (6.x counts)
Claude Fable 5.5 (5.2+ counts)
GLM-5.4 (or any GLM model)
GPT-6.2 Sol
Muse Wonder 1.x
Grok 4.8 (or any Grok/Composer model)
Muse Spark 1.x/2.x
Nemotron 4 (or any Nemotron model)
Any Nano Banana model
MiMo V2.7 / V3 (or any MiMo model)
Claude Opus 5.6
GPT-6.2 Luna (6.x counts)
DeepSeek V4.1 Pro / V5 (or any DeepSeek model)
MiniMax M3.2 (or any MiniMax model)
Any Mistral model
Gemini 4 Flash-Lite
Claude Haiku 5.6
GPT-6.2 Terra
Gemini 4 Flash
Kimi K3.2 / K4 (or any Kimi model)
Claude Sonnet 5.6
Beam 1.x (or any Reflection model)
Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) model
100
96
95
89
87
85
80
78
74
72
71
65
63
62
57
53
48
40
33
32
31
19
18
17
6
US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted
Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.
One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days
Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly
A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides
High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.
38
21
OptionVotes
YES
NO
135
