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Prediction markets for Production
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.32%chance
480364022
OptionVotes
2874
2054
By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?
May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
74.04%chance
18153882
OptionVotes
1998
1192
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
62.79%chance
6342394
OptionVotes
129891
76988
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
31.25%chance
5818669
OptionVotes
14461
7017
Will a hybrid cultivated and plant-based meat product be commercially available in the US by 2025?
Mar 3, 1:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.58%chance
7011145
OptionVotes
3221
117
Will any country implement a tax on meat products due to environmental concerns by the end of 2025? (M$300 subsidy)
Jul 23, 1:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
4.54%chance
587290
OptionVotes
6288
465
Will US productivity growth be >= 2% (annualized) over the next 5 years?
Oct 7, 6:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
79.31%chance
345173
OptionVotes
2013
732
Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?
Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
38.89%chance
341434
OptionVotes
2250
1738
Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?
Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
70.24%chance
251062
OptionVotes
1018
894
OptionVotes
1604
624
Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2027?
Sep 1, 4:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.87%chance
11473
OptionVotes
1146
1064
Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?
Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
54.23%chance
4120
OptionVotes
1119
949
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