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Prediction markets for Production
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
27.86%chance
653719860
OptionVotes
5791
4783
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
67.55%chance
10358928
OptionVotes
144964
69643
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
31.26%chance
7024069
OptionVotes
14460
7017
Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
85.58%chance
1721452
OptionVotes
35974
6720
Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
61.52%chance
816970
OptionVotes
12644
7909
Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?
Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM
39.95%chance
1412824
OptionVotes
12260
8157
Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
42.62%chance
810267
OptionVotes
11603
8618
Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
58.57%chance
69585
OptionVotes
11889
8411
Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
52.89%chance
69260
OptionVotes
10595
9438
Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
58.31%chance
66603
OptionVotes
11826
8456
Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
64.03%chance
85478
OptionVotes
13342
7495
Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
37.86%chance
64494
OptionVotes
12811
7806
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