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Prediction markets for PROVE
Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?
Mar 14, 9:28 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
27.66%chance
4333399
OptionVotes
1009
754
Will a blank-slate AI prove the infinitude of primes by 2025-11-03?
Nov 3, 6:08 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM
25%chance
14019563
OptionVotes
3527
720
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.68%chance
404470
OptionVotes
984
823
Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?
Mar 14, 9:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
13.22%chance
493794
OptionVotes
1014
656
Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?
Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM
18.07%chance
443696
OptionVotes
1000
841
By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM
72.93%chance
302352
OptionVotes
1751
383
Which theorem prover will have proved the most theorems on Freek's list by end of 2025?
Jun 16, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
81434
OptionProbability
52
39
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
1141
763
Will Donald Trump prove to be the lawless-son-of-perdition-beast-and-THE-antichrist by 23-SEPT-2028 and build 3rd-temple
May 30, 9:11 PMSep 23, 11:59 PM
4690
OptionProbability
90
90
76
76
76
76
76
70
34
24
24
24
10
8
6
6
6
6
AutoGPT style agents will prove in the longer run the proper way to get automation of medium complexity tasks.
Apr 29, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.75%chance
10389
OptionVotes
1187
907
Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?
Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33.78%chance
120
OptionVotes
90
56
Will "What do coherence arguments actually prove ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 3, 2:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000