OptionProbability
António José Seguro (Socialist Party)
André Ventura (Chega)
Election will not be held as scheduled
Election will be postponed or cancelled
Joao Cotrim de Figueiredo (Liberal Initiative)
Henrique Gouveia e Melo (Independent)
Luis Marques Mendes (Social Democratic Party)
Other
António Filipe (Communist Party)
Catarina Martins (Left Bloc)
85
3
2
1
0
PL
PT
PSD
Republicanos
União Brasil
43
23
15
10
7
0–6 months (until Dec 2025)
7–12 months (Jan–Jun 2026)
13–18 months (Jul–Dec 2026)
19–22 months (Jan–Apr 2027, i.e. until scheduled rotation)
More than 22 months (government survives past April 2027)
95
76
66
50
38
Nicușor Dan (Indep.)
George Simion (AUR)
Călin Georgescu (Indep.)
Ilie Bolojan (PNL)
Victor Ponta (Indep.)
Diana Soșoacă (SOS)
George Becali (Indep.)
Sorin Grindeanu (PSD)
Anamaria Gavrilă (POT)
Elena Lasconi (USR)
Daniel Băluță (PSD)
Marius Lulea (AUR)
Dominic Fritz (USR)
Kelemen Hunor (UDMR)
Election cancelled/annulled
48
14
