Lula Leads 2026 Race with 34%; Bolsonaro Faces STF Review, House Arrest, and Divided Public Opinion

A recent Quaest poll indicates that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the 2026 Brazilian presidential race with 34% of voter intentions in the first round, ahead of Jair Bolsonaro who has 28%. Lula also wins in all second-round scenarios, securing 43% against Tarcísio de Freitas's 35%. This marks the first time Bolsonaro is not the most competitive right-wing candidate. In state-level races, Eduardo Paes leads the Rio de Janeiro governor race with 35%, Tarcísio leads São Paulo with 43%, Cleitinho leads Minas Gerais with 28%, and Sergio Moro leads Paraná with 38%. Approval ratings for several governors include Ronaldo Caiado in Goiás at 88%, Ratinho Júnior in Paraná at 84%, and Romeu Zema in Minas Gerais at 55%. Meanwhile, Jair Bolsonaro's legal situation remains under scrutiny. His defense has submitted explanations to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) denying any breach of precautionary measures or risk of flight, calling the Federal Police report a "political piece." The Prosecutor General's Office (PGR) is expected to respond within 48 hours, and the STF reportedly plans to avoid aggravating Bolsonaro's situation before his trial. Public opinion polls show 55% consider Bolsonaro's arrest justified, and 52% believe he participated in an attempted coup. The PGR has requested increased surveillance of Bolsonaro to ensure compliance with his house arrest. Additionally, political figures like PL president Valdemar Costa Neto have compared Bolsonaro's charismatic influence to historical figures, though clarifications were later issued regarding the comparison. The PL president also suggested that former U.S. President Donald Trump is Bolsonaro's "only way out," a statement that drew criticism. Within the PSD party, Gilberto Kassab reaffirmed Ratinho Júnior and Eduardo Leite as presidential pre-candidates for 2026 but acknowledged that Tarcísio de Freitas's candidacy could prompt internal reconsideration.