OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed
Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)
India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore
A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026
United States troops enter Iran
Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)
Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico
USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba
Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire
Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Hostile military action by United States against Cuba
123
Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
A country declares war on Israel
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths
Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Successful military coup in Venezuela
Any NATO country formally declares war on another country
Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran undergoes a regime change
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths
Egypt formally declares war on another country
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period
Iran loses territory
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil
China formally declares war on another country
China invades Taiwan
Any country leaves NATO
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
USA leaves NATO
India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor
Sudanese Civil War ends
Israel loses territory
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
United States formally declares war on another country
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
United States formally declares war on Iran
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Iranian troops enter Israel
Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A country declares war on United States
United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026
Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Israel annexes any portion of Iran
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Any US territory comes under Canadian administration
Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation
Humans will extinct
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
97
92
92
84
84
73
63
63
62
61
60
59
53
53
53
51
50
49
49
45
44
44
44
42
42
42
41
40
40
40
39
39
38
38
36
36
34
34
33
33
33
32
32
32
31
30
30
30
30
30
29
29
28
28
28
27
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
23
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
18
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
1
0
0
OptionProbability
CCP (China)
BJP (India)
PAP (Singapore)
CDU (Germany)
United Russia (Russia)
LDP (Japan)
Labour (UK)
DPP (Taiwan)
Republican Party (USA)
Brothers of Italy (Italy)
TDP (Turkmenistan)
AKP (Turkey)
PT (Brazil)
DPK (South Korea)
PSOE (Spain)
PFDJ (Eritrea)
PSUV (Venezuela)
Democratic Party (USA)
Renaissance (France)
Likud (Israel)
SPD (Germany)
Fidesz (Hungary)
Liberal Party (Canada)
97
94
93
83
82
78
69
60
55
50
50
47
45
43
38
38
35
34
32
31
30
29
27
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1337
748

