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Prediction markets for PT
Which of the following parties will be in office on December 31, 2028?
Aug 9, 4:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
565147
OptionProbability
97
93
90
83
82
80
75
73
60
60
51
50
50
47
45
44
43
38
38
32
31
30
24
Will MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD be approved by the FDA before 2030?
Mar 8, 9:01 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
73.53%chance
274257
OptionVotes
1118
375
OptionVotes
1244
660
Who is going to be the presidential candidate supported by PT in the next Brazilian presidential election?
Oct 31, 12:01 AMOct 5, 2:59 AM
9491
OptionProbability
65
18
8
3
3
2
1
Will I believe that Klotho gene therapy in adults is a nontrivial cognitive enhancer (order of >5 IQ pts) EOY 2025?
Nov 9, 5:50 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM
35.29%chance
4356
OptionVotes
1354
739
Will we get conclusive evidence to prove that ALTO-100 performs better than placebo against Depression and/or PTSD before 2027?
Jan 31, 7:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
17.18%chance
4116
OptionVotes
162
60
OptionProbability
75
25
Will any US state mandate that employers provide full-time employees 2 weeks of PTO per year by the end of 2030?
Sep 21, 1:18 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
72.83%chance
589
OptionVotes
147
88
Will p(doom) be meaningfully (>3%) affected by alignment researchers choosing to walk rather than run from ptA to ptB?
Sep 21, 9:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
36.26%chance
341
OptionVotes
111
75
Will any US state mandate that employers provide full-time employees 4 weeks of PTO per year by the end of 2030?
Sep 21, 1:19 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
59%chance
433
OptionVotes
126
96
Will any US state mandate that employers provide full-time employees 6 weeks of PTO per year by the end of 2030?
Sep 21, 1:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
44.08%chance
330
OptionVotes
118
103
Will Peloton (PTON) still be an independent company on January 1, 2027?
Jun 12, 12:06 PMJan 11, 4:59 AM
327
OptionProbability
37
25
22
16