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Prediction markets for Public Media Company
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
86
80
76
76
74
72
72
71
66
66
65
63
63
63
62
58
54
54
53
52
51
50
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3
Did tech companies spy on you through device microphones?
Jan 4, 5:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
6.88%chance
7310484
OptionVotes
3680
272
Will Apple sell AirPods with EEG functionality in 2025?
Mar 8, 11:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
6.54%chance
478661
OptionVotes
3781
264
A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026
Mar 11, 2:59 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
16.15%chance
366289
OptionVotes
2279
439
Elon Musk financially backs campaign to remove Trump from office?
Jun 6, 3:13 PMDec 31, 4:06 PM
15.08%chance
171970
OptionVotes
2373
421
By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?
Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
11.4%chance
181414
OptionVotes
1241
941
Will a major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, or Meta) acquire a neurotech startup in 2025?
Mar 8, 11:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.99%chance
15845
OptionVotes
1105
905
Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?
Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60.61%chance
17461
OptionVotes
1173
596
After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?
Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
10432
OptionProbability
51
30
9
2
2
2
2
2
2
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Jun 1, 6:49 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
86.31%chance
9360
OptionVotes
363
68
Will OpenAI launch or buy out a social media network by Jan 2028?
Apr 16, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.98%chance
12194
OptionVotes
100
100
Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM
Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM
49.85%chance
215
OptionVotes
50
50
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