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Prediction markets for QIA
OptionProbability
475
197
OptionVotes
1174
942
Will qiaochu yuan win the Nobel prize in Peace or in literature?
May 13, 9:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1.95%chance
5612
OptionVotes
710
14
OptionVotes
159
63
Will a biography of Qiaochu Yuan be written by EOY 2027 (with the help of AI)?
Nov 10, 9:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27.36%chance
255
OptionVotes
135
61
Will we have biography of >50 of the rationalists/EAs/TESCREALS written by Chen Shou, Sima Qian, or Plutarch by EOY2050?
Jan 4, 9:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
59.02%chance
120
OptionVotes
120
83
OptionVotes
80
62
If Jose Luis Ricon (JLR!!) were to face off Qiaochu Yuan in a cagematch/fight/duel, WOULD HE WIN?
May 2, 4:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.75%chance
110
OptionVotes
110
91
Does Qiaochu Yuan believe the world wants him to be happy?
Nov 10, 8:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50.99%chance
11
OptionVotes
71
69
Will janus/repligate, Alex Zhu,gaspode,gwern, JDP, qiaochu, adic_9 all be written into final fantasy game/fanfic by 2029
Jun 11, 7:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
Fanfic of dante Divine comedy featuring aellagirl, Alex Zhu, repligate, qiaochu yuan, yacine, and basedbeffjezos by 2028
Jun 11, 5:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
Will Jose Luis Ricon, Alexey Guzey, or Qiaochu Yuan make it into the guinness book of world records for *anything*by2060
Jul 23, 7:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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