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Rain News

    Prediction markets for Rain

    OptionProbability

    Slime Rancher 3

    Red Dead Redemption 3

    Half Life 3

    Alan Wake 3

    Risk of Rain 3

    Overcooked 3

    Death Stranding 3

    Hades 3

    Helldivers 3

    Dead Island 3

    Destiny 3

    Banjo Kazooie 3

    Remnant 3

    Guild Wars 3

    Rivals of Aether 3

    Slay the Spire 3

    Frostpunk 3

    Titanfall 3

    Supreme Commander 3

    Chameleon Twist 3

    World of Goo 3

    Starcraft 3

    Left 4 Dead 3

    Super Mario Galaxy 3

    Battle for Middle Earth 3

    Overwatch 3

    Hello Neighbor 3

    Team Fortress 3

    Bioshock 3

    Portal 3

    Planetside 3

    Counter Strike 3

    Hotline Miami 3

    Prison Architect 3

    80

    79

    78

    73

    70

    70

    69

    67

    58

    57

    54

    53

    50

    50

    50

    50

    49

    45

    45

    44

    43

    42

    42

    41

    36

    35

    34

    32

    28

    27

    24

    20

    6

    4

    OptionProbability

    Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

    Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month

    Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

    dick cheney still alive at end of month

    at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

    nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

    trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

    trump leaves usa at least once

    web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

    large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

    a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news

    noam chomsky alive until end of month

    100F temperature in nyc at least one day

    NASDAQ hits an all time high

    earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

    starship launch

    Anthropic or Meta release a new model

    $500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

    Hurricane landfalls in Florida

    destiny goes on joe rogan

    Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

    Measles outbreak in the United States (+500 cases)

    Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

    nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once

    earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

    spacex launches 15 or more rockets

    spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced

    another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia

    twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)

    An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

    israel hamas ceasefire

    major tech company merger/acquisition announced

    another indictment or charges announced against trump

    bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day

    silksong game release date announced

    usa bombs or missle strikes syria

    Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

    silksong game releases

    a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

    usa troops enter lebanon

    usa troops enter syria

    ukraine russia ceasefire

    winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced

    american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

    china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

    luffy finds the one piece

    usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

    99

    99

    99

    90

    87

    84

    80

    69

    69

    69

    69

    67

    57

    57

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    40

    39

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    28

    24

    24

    21

    20

    20

    20

    20

    14

    14

    11

    11

    8

    6

    5

    4

    2

    2

    Will there be 40 inches of rain in Central Park this year?

    Jan 2, 3:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    73.87%chance
    3300

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    168

    59

    2025-26 Ashes Prediction

    Jul 5, 9:36 AMJan 6, 11:59 PM
    6254

    OptionProbability

    Jofra Archer plays at least one test

    Harry Brook gets a ton

    Sydney gets rain

    Stokes isn’t captain for all the games

    One test match has a winner by innings

    Sydney is a Draw

    Pat Cummins doesn’t play all 5 tests

    Complaint about red Westpac Logo on Players Shirts

    Someone announces retirement

    Usman is dropped during the series

    5 test debutants or more

    4 test debutants or less

    England doesn’t win a game

    Someone gets concussed

    Jamie Smith makes a ton

    Aus Win 5-0

    Jofra breaks someone’s bone

    83

    76

    66

    66

    52

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    44

    41

    34

    24

    10

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    581

    439

    Will there be 50 inches of rain in Central Park this year?

    Jan 2, 3:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    61.45%chance
    492

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    126

    79

    Will Gatorade bring back Rain Lime flavor before EOY 2029?

    Dec 7, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    49.91%chance
    884

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    174

    164

    5th Ashes Test 2025/26 Predictions

    Aug 3, 9:50 AMJun 7, 11:59 PM
    370

    OptionProbability

    Australia Win Game

    Australia Win Toss

    Australia Bat First

    Someone announces retirement during the game

    Winner by innings

    Smith 100

    Hazelwood 5fa

    Lose a whole day due to rain

    Root 100

    Draw

    66

    50

    50

    50

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    156

    64

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