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Prediction markets for Raízen SA
If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM
46%chance
19885389
OptionVotes
8337
4727
Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?
Apr 16, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.72%chance
5954539
OptionVotes
40585
2464
Trump sends National Guard to San Francisco by end of 2025?
Aug 23, 4:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.59%chance
3943844
OptionVotes
45591
2193
Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)
Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.68%chance
2236231
OptionVotes
34661
2885
If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?
Apr 22, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.47%chance
5131182
OptionVotes
23110
6062
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
9.22%chance
10025153
OptionVotes
4662
1436
Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025
Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.08%chance
1817139
OptionVotes
24776
2392
OptionVotes
12468
9595
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM
2.63%chance
317843
OptionVotes
6627
496
WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036
Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
35.27%chance
23550
OptionVotes
13548
7381
Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?
Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM
49.22%chance
243307
OptionVotes
10581
9400
Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?
Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM
7235
OptionProbability
51
49