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RAW News

    Prediction markets for RAW

    Which gaming companies will layoff 20%+ of their workforce by end 2026?

    Feb 28, 9:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    368081

    OptionProbability

    Devolver

    Humble

    Epic

    Xbox Game Studios

    Double Fine

    343 Industries

    Ubisoft

    Rocksteady Studios

    Embracer

    Saber Interactive

    Unity

    Electronic Arts

    Raw Fury

    Rare

    Krafton

    Team17

    tinyBuild

    Zynga

    Itch

    Paradox

    Humble Bundle

    Take-Two

    King

    Insomniac

    Square Enix

    Naughty Dog

    Playstation Studios

    Sony

    Nexon

    Konami

    Tencent

    Roblox

    Activision Blizzard

    NetEase

    Bandai Namco

    Behaviour Interactive

    Nvidia

    Nintendo

    Valve

    Microsoft

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    81

    75

    72

    72

    63

    61

    55

    53

    50

    50

    50

    49

    46

    41

    36

    32

    31

    28

    25

    25

    25

    22

    22

    22

    21

    21

    19

    15

    14

    13

    8

    7

    6

    5

    Which gaming companies will shut down by end 2030?

    Feb 28, 9:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    437127

    OptionProbability

    Humble

    Bioware

    343 Industries

    Rocksteady Studios

    Frost Giant Studios

    Saber Interactive

    Krafton

    Ubisoft

    King

    Humble Bundle

    Embracer

    Raw Fury

    Team17

    Itch

    NetEase

    Asmodee

    Zynga

    tinyBuild

    Rare

    Unity

    Playstation Studios

    Take-Two

    Insomniac

    Konami

    Paradox

    Nexon

    Bandai Namco

    Naughty Dog

    Bungie

    Electronic Arts

    Activision Blizzard

    Xbox Game Studios

    Tencent

    Square Enix

    Epic

    Double Fine

    Microsoft

    Sony

    Roblox

    Devolver

    Nvidia

    Valve

    Nintendo

    100

    100

    87

    70

    59

    51

    50

    46

    45

    45

    41

    41

    41

    38

    37

    35

    34

    34

    34

    30

    28

    27

    27

    26

    25

    24

    24

    24

    23

    22

    22

    21

    20

    19

    12

    11

    10

    10

    10

    9

    5

    1

    1

    Which 3 US cities will see the largest raw increase in population over the 20s, as judged by the 2030 census?

    Aug 9, 4:11 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
    111051

    OptionProbability

    Austin, Texas

    Houston, TX

    San Antonio, TX

    Fort Worth, TX

    Phoenix, AZ

    Dallas, TX

    Charlotte, NC

    NYC, NY

    Seattle, WA

    Atlanta, Georgia

    Minneapolis, Minnesota

    Denver, CO

    Boston, MA

    Detroit, Michigan

    Los Angeles, CA

    Miami, FL

    Washington, DC

    San Jose, CA

    San Diego, CA

    Columbus, OH

    San Francisco, CA

    Chicago, IL

    Port St. Lucie, FL

    Huntsville, Alabama

    Boise, ID

    Albuquerque, NM

    Fort Myers, Florida

    Berkeley, CA

    Philadelphia, PA

    Cleveland, OH

    St Louis, MO

    Salt Lake City, UT

    Tallahassee, Florida

    72

    67

    67

    67

    62

    60

    46

    26

    20

    16

    16

    16

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    11

    10

    10

    9

    7

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    What major event will precipitate the next run on toilet paper in the United States?

    Jul 17, 12:14 AMJul 17, 12:13 AM
    10731

    OptionProbability

    Other

    A new global pandemic

    A major natural disaster affecting multiple states

    A severe economic recession leading to panic buying

    A recall of contaminated toilet paper products

    Significant disruptions in the supply chain due to geopolitical conflicts

    A cyberattack disrupting logistics and distribution networks

    A widespread power grid failure

    A major political event causing widespread uncertainty

    A prolonged labor strike in the paper manufacturing industry

    Government-imposed lockdowns or curfews

    A sudden surge in population due to mass migration

    A major transportation strike affecting goods delivery

    A significant increase in raw material costs for paper production

    A viral social media trend promoting toilet paper stockpiling

    A major fire or accident at a key toilet paper manufacturing plant

    A new tax or tariff on imported paper goods

    A significant increase in toilet paper exports reducing domestic supply

    A disruption in water supply leading to increased toilet paper usage

    A significant technological failure in manufacturing equipment

    A sudden change in consumer behavior due to health advisories

    volcano eruption

    22

    6

    6

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    1

    Will it become illegal in the US to collect/process/etc "raw" data (i.e. without DRM) by 2040?

    Oct 25, 6:23 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
    15.31%chance
    22492

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1187

    944

    will the raw bench press world record be 800 lbs or more at the end of 2029?

    Feb 28, 9:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    83%chance
    4174

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    221

    45

    Rawr

    Dec 22, 11:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    18.53%chance
    2110

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    130

    67

    Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

    May 5, 7:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    67.46%chance
    144

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    144

    69

    2031 US dietary guidelines prop bets

    Jan 23, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    140

    OptionProbability

    Will the 2031 guidelines contain warnings against saturated fat?

    Will seed oils be explicitly recommended again?

    Will the guidelines explicitly recommend against seed oils by name?

    Will there be a specific linoleic acid limit?

    Will there be a specific PUFA limit?

    Will there be a specific SFA limit?

    Will tallow be specifically endorsed?

    Will the upper protein recommendation increase beyond 1.6 g/kg?

    Will the lower protein recommendation decrease below 1.2 g/kg?

    Will raw milk be specifically endorsed?

    Will cream be specifically endorsed?

    Will ketogenic diets be specifically mentioned?

    Will carnivorous diets be specifically mentioned?

    Will avocados or avocado oil be specifically endorsed?

    Will olives or olive oil be specifically endorsed?

    Will coconuts or coconut oil be specifically endorsed?

    Will macadamias or macadamia oil be specifically endorsed?

    Will butter or ghee be specifically endorsed?

    Will the guidelines return to recommending low-fat or skim dairy?

    Will the protein recommendation be dropped?

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    24

    24

    Will Jose Luis Ricon learn to eat chicken/parrot/quail/ostrich/penguin eggs both raw and whole (with the eggshell)

    Oct 9, 3:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    31.24%chance
    230

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    100

    50

    Did the Eon fly connectome receive raw visual input?

    Mar 8, 8:56 PMDec 31, 9:56 PM
    45.25%chance
    110

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    110

    91

    Will cockatoos become rawr?

    Apr 4, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    51.96%chance
    12

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    52

    48

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