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Prediction markets for Resource
When will we first use something produced from resources gathered in space?
Feb 9, 7:47 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM
445004
OptionProbability
38
34
32
24
11
6
0
By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?
May 15, 1:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
47.97%chance
393890
OptionVotes
1103
815
By 2035, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?
May 15, 1:28 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
34.49%chance
27951
OptionVotes
1187
876
Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?
May 6, 4:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
54.2%chance
28925
OptionVotes
1197
654
Will a war break out between two or more countries over control of Antarctic land or resources by 2027?
Dec 16, 2:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
8.14%chance
14756
OptionVotes
1532
905
Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?
Mar 15, 5:57 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM
13534
OptionProbability
48
38
15
if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?
Mar 20, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM
13.62%chance
20467
OptionVotes
1299
910
Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?
Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
13.23%chance
13446
OptionVotes
1169
944
Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?
Mar 27, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
77.34%chance
9155
OptionVotes
350
142
Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $1M in revenue?
May 6, 4:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
32.51%chance
582
OptionVotes
246
117
MP Materials halts sales to Shenghe Resources by EOY2025?
Jul 19, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
64.75%chance
251
OptionVotes
136
74
Which diagram resource URI pattern will become the MCP standard by end of 2025?
Apr 3, 5:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
00
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20