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Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?
Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
7.82%chance
1029138455
OptionVotes
344298
43497
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?
Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
66%chance
34302736079
OptionVotes
13099
7492
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8.24%chance
8561819392
OptionVotes
34119
9563
OptionProbability
24
16
12
9
8
5
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
23
13
12
9
7
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
56.74%chance
615426861
OptionVotes
17459
7444
OptionProbability
24
24
13
6
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
86%chance
497197634
OptionVotes
5223
1087
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.12%chance
3612488
OptionVotes
19925
5019
Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030?
Aug 12, 7:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30%chance
5211519
OptionVotes
1528
655
Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]
Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.85%chance
231547
OptionVotes
1201
926
Will Ro Khanna be Vice President of the United States before he turns 78?
Apr 7, 4:12 AMSep 14, 3:59 AM
5.87%chance
5322
OptionVotes
505
125
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