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Prediction markets for Robotaxi
In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
140174415
OptionProbability
71
14
4
3
3
3
1
1
Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?
Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM
9.02%chance
24568669
OptionVotes
2875
598
OptionVotes
2844
352
Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?
Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.91%chance
153065
OptionVotes
3015
332
Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]
Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.88%chance
112823
OptionVotes
2132
604
Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2026? [description]
Dec 17, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.67%chance
72390
OptionVotes
2875
637
Will Waymo be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?
Jan 23, 8:03 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
82.57%chance
432228
OptionVotes
1461
858
Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2027? [description]
Feb 15, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.12%chance
91823
OptionVotes
2369
422
Will most miles in the US be driven by hail-on-demand robotaxis in 2030?
Jan 4, 12:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
13.01%chance
211307
OptionVotes
1534
867
Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?
Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
81.25%chance
221018
OptionVotes
1246
922
A Chinese company will surpass Waymo in total global robotaxi fleet size in 2026
Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 9, 7:59 AM
59.67%chance
9426
OptionVotes
1216
822
Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]
Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.76%chance
4380
OptionVotes
1134
882
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