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Prediction markets for Robotaxi
In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
110103066
OptionProbability
49
21
11
6
5
4
3
1
Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?
Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM
11.44%chance
23459572
OptionVotes
2402
652
Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2026?
Jan 21, 9:03 AMDec 31, 9:00 PM
65.47%chance
8037359
OptionVotes
1468
354
OptionVotes
5359
187
OptionVotes
2844
352
Will Tesla FSD Robotaxi have a fatal accident in Austin in 2025
Jun 11, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.27%chance
276133
OptionVotes
3330
300
Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?
Jan 15, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
13.2%chance
434154
OptionVotes
1062
967
9. Robotaxi services will win double-digit market share in ride-hailing in at least 5 major U.S. cities.
Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
12.54%chance
353563
OptionVotes
2641
379
Will Waymo be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?
Jan 23, 8:03 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
67.79%chance
411593
OptionVotes
1064
805
Will most miles in the US be driven by hail-on-demand robotaxis in 2030?
Jan 4, 12:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
13.01%chance
211307
OptionVotes
1534
867
Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?
Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.49%chance
91037
OptionVotes
1756
569
Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?
Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
79.52%chance
21918
OptionVotes
1146
946
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