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Top stories

Lyon, Nice and Lille Draw Europa League Opponents for 2025-26

Lyon, Nice and Lille Draw Europa League Opponents for 2025-26

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Roma

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.13%chance

34822801045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10841

8706

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.71%chance

526216469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11814

5864

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.84%chance

23968851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2700

584

Tontine

Sep 22, 1:25 AMJan 18, 4:59 AM

4028667

OptionProbability

@Joshua

@Gabrielle

@dreev

@Anthem

@Lorxus

@WilliamEhlhardt

@jgyou aka JGY

@jcb

@brubsby (NO)

@tfae

@jskf

@bohaska

@DylanSlagh

@AlexbGoode (NO)

@AnthonyPeterson (NO)

@tiswtr (NO)

@roma

@snoozingnewt (NO)

@case (NO)

@Nikos (NO)

@Primer

@Ernie

Other

@JoshuaB (NO)

@dylanslagh [dup]

@firstuserhere (NO)

@ArkPoint (NO)

@vansh (NO)

@Charlie (NO)

@CamillePerrin (NO)

@SeraphinaNix (NO)

32

25

12

5

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the Roman Catholic Church permit the ordination of female priests by 2050?

Apr 27, 8:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.33%chance

497835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1829

1678

Who will be the next White House Press Secretary?

Aug 13, 4:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

172830

OptionProbability

Other

Anna Kelly

Scott Jennings

Alina Habba

Roma Daravi

Steven Cheung

Natalie Harp

50

20

18

5

3

3

2

Serie A 2026-2027 Scudetto (Championship) Winner

Aug 22, 6:45 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

12985

OptionProbability

Inter Milan

Juventus

AS Roma

Other

Napoli

AC Milan

52

11

11

11

9

6

Roman Catholic Church decides damnation is not eternal (market ends 2040)

Jul 29, 11:39 PMAug 6, 3:59 AM

28.67%chance

12826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1577

634

Will the Roman Empire make a comeback until EOY 4000?

Feb 9, 12:55 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

26.15%chance

20583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

877

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45%chance

4230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

924

Will "The Value Proposition of Romantic Relationships" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 2:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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