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Top stories

ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn Highlights India Ties, Security, and Economic Cooperation at Australia-ASEAN Business Forum 2025

ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn Highlights India Ties, Security, and Economic Cooperation at Australia-ASEAN Business Forum 2025

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for safety

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.91%chance

3026097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31979

3127

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.57%chance

5212004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8319

3970

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.54%chance

777161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2241

1226

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

79.24%chance

554762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1954

512

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

79%chance

432588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1939

516

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.74%chance

301897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

946

Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?

Sep 12, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.19%chance

131082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

888

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

32.56%chance

21893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

803

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

5546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73.57%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

1021

By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?

Jun 29, 5:53 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

72.73%chance

16315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

959

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

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