OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Stays alive
pass 500 or more executive orders
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
new blockade of a country
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
put his name on a ship in the navy
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Says 6 7 (or variant)
Dep
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
ten or more protestors killed during term
Causes Tina Peters' early release
resume buying oil from Russia
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state
Pardon himself
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Raise the retirement age for social security
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
Call for the end of the Senate
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
have a journalist arrested
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Salute Putin
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Get rid of Noaa.
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Implement a federal abortion ban
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
force a former president to testify before Congress
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Pardon p diddy
stops all sanctions on Russia
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Withdraw from NATO
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Implement a federal age of consent
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Add a citizenship question to the census
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
Enact price controls on groceries
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Prosecute someone for flag burning
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Announce he’s running for a third term
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
all time high unemployment reached
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Causes derek chauvin's early release
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Attack a NATO ally.
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
ban trans people from holding federal offices
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Annex any part of Mexico
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
take control of a part of greenland
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Postpone the elections due to emergency
make statements that are negative about labubu
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
fully nationalize an airline
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal an amendment
declares a white history month
Call for the end of the House of Reps
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
bans anime
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
bans 6 7
Kidnap the Pope
100
100
100
100
100
95
88
88
84
83
82
80
80
75
72
71
70
69
69
69
69
68
67
64
62
60
57
55
53
52
52
50
47
45
44
44
43
42
41
40
40
39
38
38
36
36
36
36
35
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Joey Graziadei
Sutton Stracke
Cris Judd
Parvati Shallow
Alana Frances Thompson (aka Honey Boo-Boo)
Jinx Monsoon
Tom Sandoval
Savannah Chrisley
Suze Orman
Paris Hilton
Ronan Farrow
Luann de Lesseps
Zach King
Cole Escola
Walton Goggins
Luke Wilson
Marc Maron
Jason Bateman
Adam DeVine
Drew Barrymore
Jools Lebron
Elle King
Lynne Spears
Emma Chamberlain
Justine Bateman
Denise Richards
Camille Grammar
Scheana Shay
Michael Rapaport
Mike White
Sarah Silverman
Beanie Feldstein
Nicole Richie
Dita Von Teese
Jennifer Tilly
Jessica Gunning
Adam Lambert
Mira Sorvino
Danielle Brooks
Meg Tilly
Julie Chrisley
Daniel Stern
Drake Bell
Dixie D'Amelio
Jeanette McCurdy
Andrea Martin
Billy Bob Thornton
Andy Cohen
Christina Hendricks
Bowen Yang
Noah Cyrus
Raven Simone
Jean Smart
Kelly Ripa
Noah Schnapp
Nikki Blonsky from the movie "Hairspray"
Jussie Smollett
Mel Gibson
Jodie Foster
Dolly Parton
Catherine O'Hara
Mia Farrow
Owen Wilson
Victoria Beckham
Nancy Mace
---
Lil Nas X
James Carville
Prince Harry
Sharon Stone
Greg Kinnear
Geena Davis
Jeanine Pirro
Jesse Watters
Linda Evangelista
Richard Gere
Tina Fey
James Charles
Todd Chrisley
Jon Lovett
Ann Coulter
Eric Trump
Meghan Markle
Charlie Sheen
Monica Lewinsky
Pitbull
Hasan Piker
Soon-Yi Previn
Donna Brazile
Elon Musk
Bette Midler
David Beckham
Steve Carell
Woody Harrelson
Harry Sisson
Lady Gaga
Rachel Maddow
Joe Rogan
Sarah Palin
Tiffany Trump
RuPaul
James Woods
Ted Cruz
Ivanka Trump
Donald Trump Jr.
Katy Perry
Anthony Weiner
Kanye West
Hillary Clinton
Gypsy-Rose Blanchard
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Roger Stone
Roseanne Barr
Ariana Grande
Prince William
Woody Allen
George Santos
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Kevin Spacey
JD Vance
100
50
50
50
41
40
38
37
37
37
37
36
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
32
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
30
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
22
22
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
16
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
10
10
10
9
9
8
6
5
5
4
OptionProbability
(2026/04/05) In the Tour de Flanders, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?
(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?
(2026/04/12) In the Paris-Roubaix, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?
(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?
(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Filippo Ganna?
(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?
(2026/01/22) After the 2nd stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?
(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?
(2026/01/24) After the 4th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?
(2026/01/25) After the 5th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?
(2026/01/17) After the 1st stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Neve Bradbury?
(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Neve Bradbury?
(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Neve Bradbury?
(2026/01/17) After the 1st stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Mackenzie Coupland?
(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Mackenzie Coupland?
(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Mackenzie Coupland?
(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Ally Wollaston?
(2026/01/19) After the 3rd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Noemi Ruegg outfinish Ally Wollaston?
(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Jay Vine outfinish Jhonatan Narváez?
(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Luke Plapp outfinish Ben O'Connor?
(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Aaron Gate outfinish Adam Yates?
(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jhonathan Narvaez outfinish Jensen Plowright?
(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Jhonathan Narvaez?
(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Mauro Schmid outfinish Harrison Sweeny?
(2026/01/25) After the 5th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish all remaining cyclists?
(2026/01/25) After the 5th stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Mauro Schmid?
(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mattias Skjelmose?
(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Remco Evenepoel outfinish Mattias Skjelmose?
(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Tadej Pogačar outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?
(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Mattias Skjelmose outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?
(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Adam Yates outfinish Jhonatan Narváez?
(2026/10/10) In the Il Lombardia, will Filippo Ganna outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?
(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Matthew Brennan?
(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Amanda Spratt outfinish Ally Wollaston?
(2026/01/18) After the 2nd stage of the Womens' Santos Down Under, will Mackenzie Coupland outfinish Ally Wollaston?
(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Adam Yates outfinish Ben O'Connor?
(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Corbin Strong outfinish Ben O'Connor?
(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Corbin Strong outfinish Adam Yates?
(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Nicolas Prodhomme outfinish Adam Yates?
(2026/01/20) In the Santos Down Under Prologue, will Corbin Strong outfinish Andrea Bagioli?
(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jay Vine outfinish Samuel Watson?
(2026/01/21) After the 1st stage of Santos Down Under, will Jhonathan Narvaez outfinish Matthew Brennan?
(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Mauro Schmid outfinish Jhonathan Narvaez?
(2026/01/23) After the 3rd stage of Santos Down Under, will Marco Brenner outfinish Harrison Sweeny?
(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Wout Van Aert?
(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Mads Pedersen outfinish Wout Van Aert?
(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Mads Pedersen?
(2026/03/21) In the Milano-San Remo, will Jasper Philipsen outfinish Filippo Ganna?
(2026/04/05) In the Tour de Flanders, will Wout van Aert outfinish Mathieu van der Poel?
(2026/04/26) In the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, will Mattias Skjelmose outfinish Pello Bilbao?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
80
69
50
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Lula Da Silva
Flavio Bolsonaro
Renan Santos
Fernando Haddad
Ratinho Junior
Tarcisio de Freitas
Jair Bolsonaro
Other
44
40
5
4
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Hunter Biden
Enrique Tarrio
Joe Biggs
Stewart Rhodes
Kelly Meggs
Ethan Nordean
Dominic Pezzola
George Santos
Donald Trump
Sean 'Diddy' Combs
Ghislane Maxwell
Chelsea Manning
Edward Snowden
Joe Exotic
Tay-K
Sam Bankman-Fried
Derek Chauvin
Julian Assange
Levi Finkelstein
Elizabeth Holmes
R. Kelly
@Mira
Harvey Weinstein
Joe Biden
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
68
66
40
39
34
34
27
20
20
19
16
12
9
5
3
2
OptionProbability
Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro
Léo Péricles
Renan Santos
Romeu Zema
Soraya Thronicke
Sofia Manzano
Tarcísio de Freitas
Michelle Bolsonaro
Simone Tebet
Ciro Gomes
Gusttavo Lima
Fernando Haddad
João Doria
Jair Bolsonaro
92
92
44
38
37
17
10
9
8
7
6
6
5
4
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
469
21
OptionProbability
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Flávio Bolsonaro
Tarcisio de Freitas
Other
Ratinho Júnior
Fernando Haddad
Renan Santos
58
19
6
6
4
4
3
OptionProbability
Rafael Grossi [Argentinian diplomat - director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency]
Other
Rebeca Grynspan [high-level UN official and former vice president of Costa Rica]
Michelle Bachelet [former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and President of Chile]
Jacinda Ardern (Former Prime Minister of New Zealand)
Mia Mottley [Prime Minister of Barbados]
Juan Manuel Santos [former Colombian president – a Nobel peace Prize laureate]
Alicia Bárcena [Mexico’s foreign affairs secretary]
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés [former president of the UN General Assembly and former minister of Ecuador]
40
18
14
14
5
4
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Ritchie Torres
Max Miller
Dan Meuser
Nancy Mace
Brian Steil
13
10
10
10
7
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1150
870
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1043
958



