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Prediction markets for Science and
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
19.85%chance
796429524
OptionVotes
34977
14290
Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
2618842
OptionProbability
86
80
80
76
72
65
55
53
51
35
31
27
10
4
Which 2025 action anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList?
Aug 23, 3:02 AMFeb 1, 6:59 AM
102442
OptionProbability
45
12
10
9
7
5
5
3
3
2
Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?
Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
52.36%chance
22432
OptionVotes
10483
9539
OptionProbability
100
100
51
47
43
36
36
28
Which 2025 comedy anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList?
Aug 27, 1:34 AMFeb 1, 6:59 AM
41623
OptionProbability
12
12
11
11
10
10
8
8
8
4
3
2
How many war crimes will James Bond commit in the next James Bond movie?
Dec 30, 2:45 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM
151029
OptionProbability
87
80
79
77
66
62
59
55
46
45
45
45
45
43
41
40
40
39
34
31
30
30
30
29
27
25
25
24
24
20
20
20
10
8
What will be true about the Ecosystemic Futures Podcast by the end of 2025?
Jan 11, 9:42 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
7798
OptionProbability
95
69
69
50
50
50
50
50
42
39
33
28
Will Jose Luis Ricon turn into Jose Luis Ricon The Science Guy and start once TV episode with that title?
Apr 4, 8:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.52%chance
5377
OptionVotes
328
31
What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?
Feb 18, 11:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
10223
OptionProbability
42
25
15
11
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?
Dec 20, 8:34 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
67.1%chance
8143
OptionVotes
201
178
OptionProbability
25
25
25
25