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Prediction markets for Science News
Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?
Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.75%chance
15119264
OptionVotes
1600
1594
Will the U.S. slide into the tenets of fascism under Trump’s second term by the end of 2025?
Mar 14, 8:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM
482805
OptionProbability
89
83
81
80
58
23
Iran’s 60%+ enriched uranium stockpile and its capability to produce more both eliminated by June 2025 strikes?
Jun 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM
8%chance
91938
OptionVotes
2500
62
Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?
Mar 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
5.13%chance
171013
OptionVotes
1814
885
Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?
Dec 17, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.31%chance
22735
OptionVotes
1074
674
OptionVotes
470
21
Will a senolytic drug be used clinically for any purpose by the end of 2028?
Apr 10, 12:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50.17%chance
11292
OptionVotes
118
100
OptionVotes
219
46
Will IGeL-Monitor.de evaluate another IGeL as "negative" by 2030?
Apr 27, 5:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
75.36%chance
8237
OptionVotes
223
113
Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29
Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
56%chance
3128
OptionVotes
1128
886
Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?
May 7, 4:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
32.39%chance
683
OptionVotes
144
69