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Prediction markets for Scope Ratings
OptionVotes
36357
3497
OptionProbability
26
25
17
12
7
5
4
3
2
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.64%chance
226982
OptionVotes
3477
288
LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
31.08%chance
161027
OptionVotes
1029
977
OptionProbability
32
19
10
9
9
9
9
5
OptionProbability
36
36
9
8
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionVotes
263
38
Will US fertility rates go above 2 births per woman before 2030?
Jan 21, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
9.85%chance
14386
OptionVotes
392
90
Omen/Presagio reaches 5,000 active traders or $25M in 30-day volume before 2027?
Sep 21, 12:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.17%chance
2101
OptionVotes
130
77
Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?
Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.44%chance
110
OptionVotes
110
92