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Scottish Parliament News

Scottish MSP Graham Simpson Jumps to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK

Scottish MSP Graham Simpson Jumps to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK

5

5 months ago

Who will be First Minister of Scotland on July 1st 2026?

May 4, 12:40 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

93465

OptionProbability

John Swinney

Anas Sarwar

Other

Kate Forbes

Douglas Ross

Alex Cole-Hamilton

Angus Robertson

78

15

5

1

1

0

0

In the next Scottish Parliamentary Election, due in 2026, what %age of the seats will each party win?

Aug 28, 7:40 AMMay 31, 10:59 PM

133114

OptionProbability

Scottish National Party

Labour

Reform

Conservative

Liberal Democrats

Greens

Alba

All others

33

18

17

16

7

6

2

1

Scottish Parliament: Will there be an Extraordinary General Election called before the next ordinary general election?

Apr 27, 10:13 PMMay 6, 10:59 PM

3.07%chance

71046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

40

Will independence supporting parties maintain a majority in the next Scottish Parliament Election?

Aug 18, 8:15 AMJun 1, 10:59 PM

24.41%chance

12481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

73

If Labour wins the next UK election will there be a Scottish independence referendum announced during that parliament?

Sep 19, 1:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.95%chance

3130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

44

If Reform wins the next UK election will there be a Scottish independence referendum announced during that parliament?

Sep 19, 1:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

3127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

How many MSPs will the Scottish Greens get at the next Scottish Parliament election?

Apr 11, 5:43 PMMay 7, 10:59 PM

379

OptionProbability

8-9

9-10

10-11

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

0-1

1-2

2-3

3-4

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

16-17

17-18

18-19

19-20

20-21

21-22

22-23

23-24

24-25

25-26

26-27

27-28

28-29

29-30

30-31

31-32

32-33

33-34

34-35

35-36

36-37

37-38

38-39

39-40

40-41

41-42

42-43

43-44

44-45

45-46

46-47

47-48

48-49

49-50

13

13

13

10

10

10

10

2

2

2

2

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be an extraordinary Scottish Parliament election due to failure to elect a First Minister?

Jan 15, 12:24 PMMay 6, 11:59 PM

14.28%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

991

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
Scottish MSP Graham Simpson Jumps to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK
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5
5 months ago

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