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Prediction markets for Security Affairs

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

161362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

589

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32925

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Who will become the 'lijsttrekker' of NSC for the 2025 Dutch elections?

Jun 17, 9:07 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

4626

OptionProbability

Eddy van Hijum

Diederik Boomsma

Other

97

2

1

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57.38%chance

11511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

862

Will Windows's desktop market share in 2026 be at least 5% lower than in 2024?

Mar 18, 5:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.73%chance

14272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

203

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2105

OptionProbability

Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

Other

81

19

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