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Prediction markets for SM
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
Aug 7, 9:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
6.66%chance
28075919
OptionVotes
3308
813
Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?
Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.14%chance
1268613
OptionVotes
2769
1875
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.46%chance
1107068
OptionVotes
1999
830
Will a sitting president smoke weed publicly before the end of 2037?
Mar 14, 12:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.06%chance
374838
OptionVotes
2501
1738
Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?
Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM
85.66%chance
434022
OptionVotes
3633
1265
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027
Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35%chance
584016
OptionVotes
1348
707
Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?
Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM
36.36%chance
382620
OptionVotes
1318
1115
Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)
Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
77.02%chance
302249
OptionVotes
1140
912
Will the UK ban smoking for future generations before the end of 2025?
Nov 2, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20%chance
231678
OptionVotes
1883
176
Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?
Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
75.89%chance
191017
OptionVotes
1043
548
OptionVotes
1084
923
Will the SMB1 Any% (NTSC) world record go to 4:54.265 or lower by January 1, 2040?
Jun 25, 12:04 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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