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Prediction markets for Smart
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
Aug 7, 9:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.74%chance
27270829
OptionVotes
1316
630
Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?
Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM
88.27%chance
384317
OptionVotes
2134
661
Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?
Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM
85.66%chance
434022
OptionVotes
3633
1265
Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)
Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
82.44%chance
443737
OptionVotes
2178
414
Will Apple release a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2025?
May 9, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
6.53%chance
1093240
OptionVotes
2770
748
OptionVotes
2532
689
Will Apple announce a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2025?
May 9, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8.65%chance
222311
OptionVotes
3079
541
OptionVotes
1448
632
Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)
Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
67.97%chance
302129
OptionVotes
1032
817
Will we be able to print a smart humanoid bot at home by 2030?
Jul 12, 4:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.95%chance
242014
OptionVotes
1832
546
Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?
Feb 20, 11:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
42.71%chance
431527
OptionVotes
1253
738
Will "Most smart and skilled people are outside of ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jul 16, 2:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10.99%chance
3305
OptionVotes
1269
962