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Top stories

China’s Wang Yi to Visit India Aug. 18–20 for Border Talks

China’s Wang Yi to Visit India Aug. 18–20 for Border Talks

Authors

12

11 hours ago

Prediction markets for Special Representatives

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment (linked)

Sep 4, 3:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

97975

OptionProbability

Trump isn’t convicted of any of these charges

Conviction(s) in exactly 1 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in exactly 2 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in exactly 3 of the 4 charges.

Conviction(s) in all 4 of the charges.

98

1

1

1

1

Who will become the next Mayor of Bucharest?

Apr 1, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

164725

OptionProbability

Ciprian Ciucu

Cătălin Drulă

Cristian Popescu Piedone

Gabriela Firea

Daniel Băluță

Vlad Voiculescu

Dan Trifu

Ana Ciceală

Other

Rareș Hopincă

Cătălin Cîrstoiu

George-Cristian Tuță

Elena Lasconi

Clotilde Armand

Sebastian Burduja

Claudiu Târziu

Mihai Enache

Diana Șoșoacă

Eugen Tomac

Nicușor Dan will not win the presidential elections

33

30

12

6

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will Mike Waltz be confirmed as Ambassador to the United Nations?

May 6, 8:16 PMDec 31, 9:14 PM

86.04%chance

212273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2482

403

Will Democrats retake the House before the 120th Congress?

Nov 13, 8:07 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

6.25%chance

5520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

387

26

US Congress members fight with deadly weapons in Congress before 2035.

Jan 8, 6:33 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

9.88%chance

7388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

121

California attempts redistricting in 2025?

Jul 29, 1:42 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

94.61%chance

7386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

419

24

Did Microsoft build a Majorana qubit?

Feb 21, 1:31 PMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

16.89%chance

8255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

50

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

183

Red Scare podcast hosts interview a major political figure before September 1, 2025

Mar 12, 12:21 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

69.84%chance

7130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

166

Will there be any Congressional Special Election flips in the 119th Congress?

Dec 4, 10:41 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

24.6%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will any member of the squad who lost their 2024 election get elected to the House of Representatives by 2026?

Aug 14, 6:55 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

25.01%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 16, 2025
Aug 16, 2025
China
India
Politics
China’s Wang Yi to Visit India Aug. 18–20 for Border Talks
Authors
12
11 hours ago

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