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Top stories

Indonesian Constitutional Court Bans Deputy Ministers From Holding Multiple Positions Including BUMN Roles in Case 128/PUU-XXIII/2025

Indonesian Constitutional Court Bans Deputy Ministers From Holding Multiple Positions Including BUMN Roles in Case 128/PUU-XXIII/2025

Authors

3

10 months ago

Prediction markets for State Ministries

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

2.13%chance

317223743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6783

147

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21651170

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Ahmad Vahidi

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Navid Shomali

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

75

10

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7745148

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

British Pound (GBP)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Manifold Mana

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Gold (Au)

Ethereum (ETH)*

Paperclips

TRUMP

63

31

24

20

9

8

8

8

8

7

6

5

5

4

3

2

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.27%chance

217018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13559

7386

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

Mar 23, 11:51 AMApr 24, 11:59 PM

13.11%chance

152683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2449

111

Will Iran physically hand over its 'nuclear dust' / enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

May 2, 7:11 PMJul 31, 10:00 PM

3.22%chance

8524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

346

84

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

Will Serra Verde MREC production for the 6 months ending September 2026 exceed 1500 t?

Mar 30, 9:14 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

76.78%chance

2105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

55

Will Serra Verde MREC production for the 6 months ending September 2026 exceed 8000 t?

Mar 30, 9:15 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will China have active export controls on silicon metal (MG-Si) on December 31, 2026?

Apr 6, 6:23 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

38.35%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

48

Will Serra Verde MREC production for the 6 months ending March 2027 exceed 5500 t?

Mar 30, 9:16 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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