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Top stories

Indonesian Constitutional Court Bans Deputy Ministers From Holding Multiple Positions Including BUMN Roles in Case 128/PUU-XXIII/2025

Indonesian Constitutional Court Bans Deputy Ministers From Holding Multiple Positions Including BUMN Roles in Case 128/PUU-XXIII/2025

Authors

3

7 months ago

Prediction markets for State Ministries

USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?

Feb 28, 6:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

9.45%chance

21363914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3095

323

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7443529

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Gold (Au)

Ethereum (ETH)*

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Paperclips

Manifold Mana

TRUMP

57

31

24

8

8

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

8334605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMMar 23, 11:59 PM

12119914

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Masoud Pezeshkian

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Sadegh Larijani

Maryam Rajavi

Ali Larijani

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

35

29

10

5

5

4

3

3

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

196946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13549

7392

On 1 April 2026: who is the de facto executive authority in Caracas?

Jan 3, 10:34 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

183920

OptionProbability

United Socialist Party of Venezuela Representative

Opposition representative

Military junta

Contested/dual power/civil war

US Government

93

2

2

2

2

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

Will Brazil revoke the new eVisa requirement for US citizens, cancel the border for USA passport holders in 2026?

Dec 20, 8:52 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

20.54%chance

6166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

51

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

79%chance

8124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

Will brazilians be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.16%chance

7109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

Mar 12, 5:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.86%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

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