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Prediction markets for State
OptionProbability
22
19
13
6
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)
Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM
217108287
OptionProbability
22
21
14
11
6
5
5
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.
Dec 5, 4:35 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM
3.18%chance
6784257
OptionVotes
59346
3665
Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?
Apr 28, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM
2.09%chance
2668577
OptionVotes
68438
1463
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM
16.88%chance
8748408
OptionVotes
13712
6179
Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
65%chance
9945279
OptionVotes
1262
800
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.81%chance
3515418
OptionVotes
10448
9571
Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?
Apr 25, 11:16 AMDec 31, 11:47 AM
27.7%chance
9615260
OptionVotes
9665
3727
Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?
Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
53.3%chance
1614186
OptionVotes
11095
8929
What will be the party of the next President of the United States?
Oct 15, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
266885
OptionProbability
59
40
1
US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028
Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM
34.52%chance
85947
OptionVotes
13772
7261
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
47.84%chance
125581
OptionVotes
10661
9352
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