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Prediction markets for STRAT
Will Trump actually establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in his first year?
Jul 27, 9:53 PMFeb 1, 9:59 PM
14.63%chance
17790032
OptionVotes
2415
414
Will AI become a strategic geopolitical weapon by 2040?
Sep 5, 10:13 AMDec 31, 11:51 PM
80%chance
553582
OptionVotes
1081
902
Will GPT-5 be at least a tiny bit strategic at the "Numbers Game"?
May 9, 9:05 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
84.71%chance
351923
OptionVotes
2140
617
Will "MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
May 29, 9:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
25.74%chance
111841
OptionVotes
1112
522
Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?
May 6, 5:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
23.29%chance
321450
OptionVotes
1092
918
Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?
Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
26.77%chance
181382
OptionVotes
1515
722
Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy be seen as a positive model in 2030?
Feb 25, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM
42.03%chance
13835
OptionVotes
1355
600
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?
Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.3%chance
17686
OptionVotes
1182
554
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
46.02%chance
23655
OptionVotes
1043
954
Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2030?
May 6, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33.4%chance
14611
OptionVotes
1026
816
If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?
Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM
68.15%chance
14493
OptionVotes
1054
965
OptionVotes
1010
994
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