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Prediction markets for SUI

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.05%chance

9814256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2083

697

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.53%chance

1227450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2395

1834

Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2035?

Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

27.78%chance

52305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

620

Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google?

Jan 24, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.92%chance

221358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

916

If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?

Mar 10, 5:39 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

42.9%chance

261185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

852

Will suicide become allowed in any US state by the end of 2029?

Nov 18, 12:46 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

16.49%chance

20858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

899

Will I hear of anyone in the US or Canada placed under an involuntary psychiatric hold for talking about suicide from a philosophical perspective?

Nov 18, 2:21 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.9%chance

14273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

966

Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2035?

Aug 3, 3:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

43.83%chance

5256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

883

Will SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?

Aug 27, 5:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

43.07%chance

3153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

Will AellaGirl feel Bryan Johnson's sui generis giant boner inside her by EOY 2030?

Mar 1, 2:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.57%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

95

Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2045?

Aug 3, 3:38 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2045?

Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

50.24%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

995

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