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Top stories

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Authors

12

1 year ago

Fifth Circuit Backs Suppressor Conviction as Tenth Circuit Questions Gun Ban for Marijuana Users

Fifth Circuit Backs Suppressor Conviction as Tenth Circuit Questions Gun Ban for Marijuana Users

Authors

3

1 year ago

Fed’s Lisa Cook Sues Trump, Challenging Attempted Firing and Fed Independence

US Gov Appointments

Fed’s Lisa Cook Sues Trump, Challenging Attempted Firing and Fed Independence

Authors

115

1 year ago

Trump Moves to Reinstate DC Death Penalty After Homicide Ends 12-Day Lull

Authors

14

1 year ago

US Domestic Policy

Trump Uses Federal Power for Retribution, Tests Legal Guardrails

Authors

12

1 year ago

Executive Orders

Trump Order Targeting Flag Burning Tests First-Amendment Limits

Authors

15

1 year ago

California GOP Sues Over Maps, Floats Two-State Split Amid Redistricting Fight

Authors

34

1 year ago

Brazil Supreme Court Orders 24/7 Surveillance of Bolsonaro on Flight-Risk Fears

Authors

15

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Supreme Court

Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?

Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

12966236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20771

3683

Will the next Supreme Court justice be appointed by a Democrat?

Jul 22, 12:56 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

28.24%chance

10042256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1690

507

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.46%chance

7133220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5473

4989

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?

Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM

7.4%chance

2928884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35379

2827

Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?

Nov 9, 3:25 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

83.28%chance

6125543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2238

449

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62%chance

9717520

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1444

442

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

36.91%chance

5911079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

406

When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?

Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

336819

OptionProbability

After 2070 (or never)

2036-2040

2029-2035

2061-2065

2041-2045

2046-2050

2066-2070

By 2028

2051-2055

2056-2060

40

18

14

10

5

3

3

2

2

2

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

406214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3162

2308

William Baude admitted to Supreme Court Bar by EOY2030?

Jun 7, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.69%chance

124778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11353

8808

If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact comes into effect before 2029, will the Supreme Court block it?

Nov 5, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.07%chance

121035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10039

9943

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

33.02%chance

8850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2129

1474

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