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Prediction markets for Supreme Court
Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?
Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
6.24%chance
12966236
OptionVotes
20771
3683
Will the next Supreme Court justice be appointed by a Democrat?
Jul 22, 12:56 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM
10.13%chance
9941770
OptionVotes
2901
249
Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?
Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM
8.23%chance
2626595
OptionVotes
33403
2994
Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
Nov 9, 3:25 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM
91%chance
4621895
OptionVotes
3188
315
Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?
Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM
69.67%chance
1914646
OptionVotes
15156
6598
If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?
Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM
33.39%chance
5710832
OptionVotes
1600
365
[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?
Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.37%chance
328030
OptionVotes
6565
1811
When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?
Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
336719
OptionProbability
40
18
14
10
5
3
3
2
2
2
Will Sonia Sotomayor still be on the Supreme Court at the end of 2026?
Apr 12, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
92.6%chance
506577
OptionVotes
5328
1451
Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?
Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM
74.49%chance
395640
OptionVotes
3686
2105
Will Donald Trump appoint at least 2 Supreme Court Justices during his second term?
Nov 7, 6:15 PMJan 20, 8:59 PM
32.31%chance
435053
OptionVotes
1447
691
William Baude admitted to Supreme Court Bar by EOY2030?
Jun 7, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.2%chance
113470
OptionVotes
10161
9841