OptionProbability
VONC called
Another early state election before 2029
Second VONC Called
Second VONC Succeeds
Rockliff leads minority government for at least 1 year
Liberals form supply and confidence agreement in support of Rockliff
Another early state election within 1 year
Liberals form coalition agreement in support of Rockliff
Labor forms government/Labor MP holds Premiership at any point
Labor-Green formal coalition in government (with or without formal independent support)
VONC succeeds (Rockliff ousted)
100
87
66
50
48
34
24
22
17
4
0
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