OptionProbability
VONC called
Rockliff leads minority government for at least 1 year
Another early state election before 2029
Second VONC Called
Second VONC Succeeds
Liberals form supply and confidence agreement in support of Rockliff
Liberals form coalition agreement in support of Rockliff
Labor forms government/Labor MP holds Premiership at any point
Labor-Green formal coalition in government (with or without formal independent support)
VONC succeeds (Rockliff ousted)
Another early state election within 1 year
100
80
66
50
34
22
17
4
0
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