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Prediction markets for The Associated Press
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?
Jan 1, 6:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
75.68%chance
30575155
OptionVotes
8484
6150
OptionProbability
48
40
11
0
0
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10%chance
8141187
OptionVotes
29364
2889
OptionVotes
3437
299
(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030
Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
23.11%chance
7011137
OptionVotes
2487
801
Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.58%chance
156839
OptionVotes
8427
3028
Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected to the House in 2026?
Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
55.58%chance
61426
OptionVotes
1244
519
Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by June 30, 2026?
Jan 12, 5:35 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM
66.48%chance
7808
OptionVotes
1409
710
Which of the following media outlets will close *or* undergo significant downsizing/restructuring before 2028?
Mar 2, 3:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
15766
OptionProbability
92
79
72
72
72
69
66
66
56
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
45
41
34
34
34
20
18
9
Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?
May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM
53.61%chance
7311
OptionVotes
1075
930
OptionVotes
1200
833
OptionVotes
1061
942
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