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Top stories

Xbox’s ‘Gears of War’ Franchise Debuts on PlayStation With Reloaded Remaster

Xbox’s ‘Gears of War’ Franchise Debuts on PlayStation With Reloaded Remaster

Authors

9

1 year ago

Prediction markets for The Coalition

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18%chance

336854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2134

469

Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?

Dec 26, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

49.3%chance

316775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

543

Which Estonian political parties will be in the coalition after the 2027 parliamentary election?

Aug 16, 2:45 PMMar 7, 9:59 PM

42326

OptionProbability

Estonian Reform Party (RE)

Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE)

Fatherland (I)

Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK)

The Right (PP)

Estonia 200 (E200)

Social Democratic Party (SDE)

Estonian Centre Party (KE)

Estonian Greens (EER)

36

31

27

27

27

27

25

25

7

Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?

May 20, 9:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.55%chance

12516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

12.04%chance

13362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

270

37

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

43.52%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

56

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?

Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

50.62%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

988

Will the Liberal-National Coalition lead One Nation in the polls at the end of August 2026?

Jul 31, 3:13 AMAug 31, 2:00 PM

40%chance

697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

How many congressmen in the House will be members of the New Democrat Coalition caucus after the 2026 midterms?

Jul 3, 7:42 AMNov 3, 12:00 AM

177

OptionProbability

Above 60

Above 70

Above 80

Above 90

Above 100

Above 110

Above 120

78

75

72

69

59

50

41

Will "A high integrity/epistemics political coalition?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 15, 6:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Which parties will be part of the new coalition after the 2027 Polish parlimentary election?

Jun 9, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

112

OptionProbability

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

Koalicja Obywatelska

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe

Nowa Lewica

Konfederacja

Polska 2050

Razem

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej

69

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

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