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Prediction markets for The Collective
By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?
Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
40%chance
24919563
OptionVotes
2714
1726
Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?
Oct 26, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM
79.7%chance
141295
OptionVotes
1035
977
Will the United States confiscate privately owned gold collections before 2035?
Mar 29, 6:56 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM
3.97%chance
9703
OptionVotes
514
119
Who will break the 5/5 stranglehold on Super Mario 64 speedrunning and collect the world record bounty?
Feb 18, 1:32 AMApr 26, 6:34 PM
10654
OptionProbability
23
17
15
9
8
6
5
5
5
5
By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?
Feb 9, 10:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
48.85%chance
15544
OptionVotes
1079
873
Will members of the Gale Family collectively receive over $50,000 by being family-style "Man-Influencers" (Manifold Influencers) by 2050?
Dec 30, 7:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
5.38%chance
9374
OptionVotes
249
156
Will there be a high-profile collective lawsuit in the USA over long-term side-effects of a COVID-19 vaccine by 2060?
Aug 31, 11:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
26.16%chance
12212
OptionVotes
237
158
Will the Research Domain Criteria term return more than 50,000 results on Web of Science core collection, on 01/01/2030?
Mar 7, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM
24.48%chance
2182
OptionVotes
108
48
Will the Smithsonian Institute sell, destroy, or otherwise deaccession parts of its collection by the end of 2026?
Mar 28, 9:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4160
OptionProbability
69
50
36
23
17
OptionVotes
103
98
Will Pokemon take action against the Pokenot collectible card project by Dysfunctional Passholder by end of 2026?
Dec 7, 6:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.78%chance
951
OptionVotes
120
83
Will chatGPT (or an analogue) be able to query the entire text of anyone's entire Goodreads collection list by EOY 2027?
Feb 22, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
66.22%chance
120
OptionVotes
90
56