the Pentagon News

Ex-Clapper Deputy Vinh Nguyen Pressured Whistleblower on Crowdstrike Report; Now NSA AI Chief Amid DOJ Russiagate Probe and Pentagon AI Shakeup

1 year ago

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

210357064

OptionProbability

Gannon Ken Van Dyke

We don't find out by end of 2026

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

Other

If Anthropic caves to the Pentagon in Q1 2026, will it remain a leading AI lab in 2027?

Feb 27, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1510922

OptionProbability

Anthropic does not cave: stays a leading lab

Anthropic does not cave: stops being a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stays a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stops being a leading lab

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.61%chance

285349

OptionVotes

YES

2902

345

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Dec 21, 5:14 AMDec 21, 5:12 AM

133703

OptionProbability

Not before 31 December 2030

in 2030

in 2028

in 2029

in 2026

in 2027

Will Pentagon get $200 billion in funds for the Iran War before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 19, 4:50 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

22.35%chance

121711

OptionVotes

YES

1864

537

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

21965

OptionVotes

YES

1006

706

Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?

Oct 29, 7:33 AMJan 1, 6:14 PM

10550

OptionProbability

Natural phenomena

Faked evidence / false testimony

Failure of detection equipment

Advanced and secret human technology

Previously unknown other species inhabitants of earth

Non human intelligence from outer space / other dimensions

Will Pentagon reverse course on Anthropic before September 2, 2026 deadline?

Apr 21, 10:47 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

55.05%chance

11257

OptionVotes

YES

121

Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?

Apr 16, 5:41 PMSep 1, 10:00 PM

40.91%chance

11245

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Feb 16, 1:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.48%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

210

Will "Does Pentagon Pizza Theory Work?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 7:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.41%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

1044

993

Pentagon stock [permanent]

Apr 4, 1:30 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

48.36%chance

424

OptionVotes

YES

112

108

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Aug 17, 2025
Aug 17, 2025
US Gov Appointments
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Ex-Clapper Deputy Vinh Nguyen Pressured Whistleblower on Crowdstrike Report; Now NSA AI Chief Amid DOJ Russiagate Probe and Pentagon AI Shakeup
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Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

If Anthropic caves to the Pentagon in Q1 2026, will it remain a leading AI lab in 2027?

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Will Pentagon get $200 billion in funds for the Iran War before the 2026 midterms?

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?

Will Pentagon reverse course on Anthropic before September 2, 2026 deadline?

Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Will "Does Pentagon Pizza Theory Work?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Pentagon stock [permanent]

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram