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NYT Tones Down Warning on RFK Jr.-Backed Push-Up Challenge

3 months ago

Mark Hamill Says Wife Kept Him From Leaving US After Trump Re-election

Celebrities

Politics

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Mark Hamill Says Wife Kept Him From Leaving US After Trump Re-election

4 months ago

UK Rail Police Warn Violence Against Women Up 59% Since 2021

Britain

Crime

Culture

UK Rail Police Warn Violence Against Women Up 59% Since 2021

3 months ago

Britain

Automobile

Business

Tesla Halves UK Lease Prices After 60% July Sales Slide

4 months ago

Soccer

Sports

Newcastle Drop Isak Amid Standoff Over £110 Million Liverpool Offer

4 months ago

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

Dec 6, 1:02 PMDec 11, 7:59 AM

17832236707

OptionProbability

Artificial Intelligence (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Jensen Huang

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Other

Sam Altman

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Zohran Mamdani

Benjamin Netanyahu

Xi Jinping

Jerome Powell

Charlie Kirk

Gen Z

Jeffrey Epstein

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Mark Carney

Lee Jae Myung

Nicolas Maduro

Ahmed Al-Sharaa

[Any variation of "The Victims of War"]

[Any variation of "The Courts"]

[Any variation of "Trump Prosecutors"]

Vladimir Putin

Beyonce

Elon Musk

Gavin Newsom

AOC

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Prediction Markets [including any founder/s or platform/s by name]

Sanae Takaichi

Nayib Bukele

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

Sep 8, 4:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10091239

OptionProbability

Anyone or anything strongly associated with AI (Sam Altman, ChatGPT, Claude, “AI”, “LLM”, “H100”, etc)

Prominent politician, judge or military leader of any country (former or current). Includes unrecognized territories such as Gaza or ISIS.

Prominent civil activist or religious leader (Snowden, Assange, Greta, Dalai-Lama, The Pope)

Other / anything or anyone not included in other answers (“Freedom Fighters”, “You”, “American Soldier”, etc)

Prominent businessman, VC, investor, CEO or chairman of a board

Prominent artist (actor, musician, writer), influencer (MrBeast, etc), journalist, athlete, chess or poker player

Prominent scientist, academic or inventor (not including AI researchers)

Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2025?

Nov 30, 2:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.63%chance

19940019

OptionVotes

YES

1984

1982

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41139585

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM

7.18%chance

710104

OptionVotes

YES

20076

7889

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.7%chance

429653

OptionVotes

YES

11488

8479

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.82%chance

285164

OptionVotes

YES

3696

271

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.22%chance

213184

OptionVotes

YES

11698

8549

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

20.45%chance

31361

OptionVotes

YES

4257

2428

What % Change will RKLB (Rocketlab) Stock Value Have After NEUTRON Launches for the first time?

Dec 20, 3:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

44.98%chance

5572

OptionVotes

YES

2662

1559

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.38%chance

27558

OptionVotes

YES

2247

1847

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Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2025?

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

What % Change will RKLB (Rocketlab) Stock Value Have After NEUTRON Launches for the first time?

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Latest stories

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