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Prediction markets for The Times
OptionProbability
29
22
13
11
7
6
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
23
19
13
13
8
7
4
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)
Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM
63.63%chance
7921645
OptionVotes
2729
2049
OptionProbability
91
84
65
59
56
42
40
34
26
23
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
19
18
17
17
16
16
11
10
9
9
8
6
6
5
5
4
4
4
3
2
2
1
Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.48%chance
2914084
OptionVotes
21724
4603
Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM
7.13%chance
810234
OptionVotes
20206
7879
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
51.05%chance
4410157
OptionVotes
10938
8979
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?
Aug 3, 1:54 PMOct 4, 10:59 PM
80.51%chance
386830
OptionVotes
1271
923
SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.
Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.81%chance
335935
OptionVotes
4447
225
OptionVotes
900
11
Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?
Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM
18.48%chance
41926
OptionVotes
7792
5300
How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)
Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM
00
OptionProbability
25
25
25
25
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