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OpenAI Raises $8.3 Billion at $300 Billion Valuation Amid Revenue Surge

1 day ago

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

Dec 6, 1:02 PMDec 11, 7:59 AM

527217620

OptionProbability

Robert Prevost / Pope Leo XIV

Other

[Any variation of Artificial Intelligence]

Benjamin Netanyahu

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Zohran Mamdani

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Xi Jinping

Vladimir Putin

[Any variation of "The Victims of War"]

[Any variation of "The Courts"]

[Any variation of "Trump Prosecutors"]

Beyonce

Gavin Newsom

AOC

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40639245

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

Other

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

Pope named Time's Person of the Year in 2025?

Apr 21, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.98%chance

7115288

OptionVotes

YES

1363

733

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

Sep 8, 4:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4413064

OptionProbability

Prominent civil activist or religious leader (Snowden, Assange, Greta, Dalai-Lama, The Pope)

Prominent politician, judge or military leader of any country (former or current). Includes unrecognized territories such as Gaza or ISIS.

Prominent businessman, VC, investor, CEO or chairman of a board

Anyone or anything strongly associated with AI (Sam Altman, ChatGPT, Claude, “AI”, “LLM”, “H100”, etc)

Other / anything or anyone not included in other answers (“Freedom Fighters”, “You”, “American Soldier”, etc)

Prominent artist (actor, musician, writer), influencer (MrBeast, etc), journalist, athlete, chess or poker player

Prominent scientist, academic or inventor (not including AI researchers)

Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2030?

Jan 30, 10:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.14%chance

13112909

OptionVotes

YES

2102

1775

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM

7.18%chance

710104

OptionVotes

YES

20076

7889

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.76%chance

419642

OptionVotes

YES

11501

8468

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

192825

OptionVotes

YES

12162

8222

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

21.91%chance

31111

OptionVotes

YES

4007

2495

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.38%chance

27558

OptionVotes

YES

2247

1847

What % Change will RKLB (Rocketlab) Stock Value Have After NEUTRON Launches for the first time?

Dec 20, 3:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.24%chance

3507

OptionVotes

YES

5351

4368

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Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Pope named Time's Person of the Year in 2025?

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2030?

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

What % Change will RKLB (Rocketlab) Stock Value Have After NEUTRON Launches for the first time?

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