The Verge News

Business

Microsoft Prepared to Walk Away From OpenAI Equity Talks

1 month ago

Software

Tech

The Verge Adds Follow Tool for Personalized Tech and Gaming Feeds

11 days ago

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

7.9%chance

183860

OptionVotes

YES

3414

293

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.44%chance

443737

OptionVotes

YES

2178

414

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

1726

368

Apple/Google post United States v. Google by 2026 year end?

Aug 6, 1:16 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

14914

OptionProbability

No TAC, keep the queries

Keep the TAC, keep the queries

No TAC, lose the queries

Keep the TAC, lose the queries

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

Nov 6, 7:14 PMFeb 5, 11:59 PM

47.32%chance

15739

OptionVotes

YES

1105

879

"The Verge": When will Ethereum use Verkle trees?

Dec 12, 1:56 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

5667

OptionProbability

By 2026-12-31

By 2025-12-31

By 2024-04-01

By 2024-07-01

By 2024-10-01

By 2025-01-01

By 2025-04-01

By 2025-07-01

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

34%chance

11621

OptionVotes

YES

1393

718

What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?

May 26, 10:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5426

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.57%chance

4317

OptionVotes

YES

1141

876

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Dec 8, 4:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11238

OptionProbability

[Consumer Privacy] A.T. v. OpenAI LP (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Copyright] Authors Guild v. OpenAI Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023)

[Libel] Walters v. OpenAI, L.L.C. (Ga. Super. Ct. 2023)

Will Alex Heath create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 5:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.28%chance

7208

OptionVotes

YES

347

120

Latest stories

Jul 22, 2025
Jul 22, 2025
Software
Tech
The Verge Adds Follow Tool for Personalized Tech and Gaming Feeds
Authors
4
11 days ago
Jun 22, 2025
Jun 22, 2025
Business
AI
Microsoft Prepared to Walk Away From OpenAI Equity Talks
Authors
96
1 month ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

The Verge News

Top stories

Prediction markets for The Verge

Prediction markets for The Verge

Prediction markets for The Verge

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Apple/Google post United States v. Google by 2026 year end?

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

"The Verge": When will Ethereum use Verkle trees?

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Will Alex Heath create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram