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Prediction markets for The Verge
Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?
Mar 21, 12:20 AMJan 2, 1:10 AM
12.42%chance
65384
OptionVotes
2656
377
Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
9.89%chance
184256
OptionVotes
3019
331
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
79.08%chance
382747
OptionVotes
1720
680
Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?
Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
27.48%chance
231701
OptionVotes
1734
365
OptionVotes
1536
606
Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
36.12%chance
11684
OptionVotes
1330
752
OptionProbability
50
50
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?
May 26, 10:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
5433
OptionProbability
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Will the Rockstar games workers gain union recognition before the release of GTAVI?
Dec 15, 11:25 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM
40.26%chance
5381
OptionVotes
1218
821
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.57%chance
4317
OptionVotes
1141
876
Will enhanced mineral weathering intentionally sequester 100gt CO2eq by 2050
Mar 1, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.52%chance
5215
OptionVotes
758
527
By the end of 2026, will it be possible to purchase a motorcycle with a solid state battery for <$50k
Jan 6, 12:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
45.44%chance
7187
OptionVotes
1096
913
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