The Washington Post News

YES

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

Max Tegmark

Emmett Shear

Bruce Schneier

George Church

Scott Aaronson

Daniel Kokotajlo

Ben Bernanke

Stephen Fry

Tim Urban

Grimes

Scott Alexander

A former Fed Chair

Neel Nanda

A professor of a Chinese university

Stuart Russell

Yoshua Bengio

Toby Ord

Geoffrey Hinton

Carl Feynman

Vitalik Buterin

Yuval Noah Harari

Nick Bostrom

Dwarkesh Patel

Kevin Roose

Geoffrey Irving

Billy Perrigo

Manifold

Helen Toner

Gwern

Ezra Klein

Evan Hubinger

Patrick McKenzie

Publishers Weekly

Vox

Christine Peterson

Keach Hagey

Bill Gates

Joe Rogan

San Francisco Chronicle

Peter Singer

Booklist

NPR

Politico

Lex Fridman

Any five current members of the UK Parliament

The Economist

Matthew Yglesias

David Chalmers

A former US Secretary of Treasury

A former US Secretary of State

A Scientific American editorial

Time

A former US Secretary of Energy

A former US Secretary of Commerce

WIRED

Gillian Hadfield

Karen Hao

A review in The Atlantic

Telegraph

Kurzgesagt

The New York Times Book Review

Peter Norvig

At least five Nobel laureates

Rolling Stone

The New Yorker

Tucker Carlson

A Science editorial

The Guardian

Ray Kurzweil

John Schulman

A current pope

Financial Times

Bloomberg Businessweek

Forbes

A New Scientist editorial

BBC

Eric Schmidt

A current US Secretary of Treasury

Jimmy Fallon

John Oliver

IEEE Spectrum

Vanity Fair

Elon Musk

Mustafa Suleyman

A current UK prime minister

Judea Pearl

António Guterres

Foreign Affairs

Barack Obama

Anthropic

A Nature editorial

The Washington Post

Associated Press

Any five current United States representatives

The Wall Street Journal

Shane Legg

Alexandr Wang

Ilya Sutskever

roon

Daron Acemoglu

A high-ranking Chinese government official

Reuters

RFK Jr

Richard Sutton

Ivanka Trump

Narendra Modi

Dario Amodei

Joe Biden

Terence Tao

OpenAI

CNN

Any five current United States senators

Peter Thiel

Benjamin Netanyahu

Demis Hassabis

Mira Murati

A current Fed Chair

Ursula von der Leyen

DeepMind

JD Vance

Daniela Amodei

Jensen Huang

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Satya Nadella

Greg Egan

A current US Secretary of Energy

Bill Clinton

JK Rowling

Noam Chomsky

Donald J. Trump

Fox News

Chris Olah

A current US Secretary of Commerce

A current US Secretary of State

Taylor Swift

Mr. Beast

Vladimir Putin

Tim Cook

Kamala Harris

King Charles

Xi Jinping

YES

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/dems wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Trump wins, will the USA conduct mass deportations before end of his term

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life

If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029

If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term

Biden will win AND Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025

If Biden/dems wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives

If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Joe Biden Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Joe Biden's term

If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/Dems wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] will be censored, prosecuted, nationalized, shut down, or prevented by government action from operating freely & openly in the US.

If Biden wins, Biden will die before the end of his term

If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton will be charged with a crime before the end of her life

If Biden wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Dems/Biden wins, Trump will concede within 1 month

If Trump Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will concede within 1 week

If Trump wins, Trump will die before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will die before the end of their term

If Dems/Biden wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Trump wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Israel/Palestine (troops on ground / in air)

If Trump wins, Russia attacks Poland

If Trump wins , the USA will leave NATO before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine (troops on ground / in air) during his time in office

If Trump wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Dems/Biden wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term

Reuters

The Washington Post

NBC

Associated Press

NPR

MSNBC

The Wall Street Journal

Axios

Wired

CNN

Environmental Defense Fund

The Trump Organization

The New York Times

Wikimedia Foundation

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Sierra Club

Black Lives Matter

Greenpeace

NO

YES

NO

The Washington Post

Sam Bankman-Fried

Neil Gaiman

Sam Altman

The Papacy

Gavin Newsom

Drake

John Fetterman

MrBeast

Disney

MSNBC

Manifold

Bluesky

Contrapoints (Natalie Wynn)

Jon Stewart

NO

YES