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Top stories

Meta’s $1 Billion Offers Fail to Lure AI Researchers

Meta’s $1 Billion Offers Fail to Lure AI Researchers

Authors

12

10 hours ago

Prediction markets for Thinking Labs

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

Aug 2, 4:38 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

2426866

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Mistral

Cohere

Hugging Face

Thinking Machines Lab

Anthropic

31

20

18

13

8

6

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 5, 5:38 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

32.64%chance

293276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1436

696

will a paper released before 2030 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 22, 6:12 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

73.68%chance

202404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1673

598

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

61%chance

131668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

800

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66%chance

20570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

792

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 10 years?

Jan 5, 10:20 AM

280

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 50 years?

Jan 5, 10:23 AM

210

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 20 years?

Jan 5, 10:21 AM

220

Latest stories

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Aug 2, 2025
Aug 2, 2025
AI
Meta’s $1 Billion Offers Fail to Lure AI Researchers
Authors
12
10 hours ago

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