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Top stories

US Domestic Policy

Trump Cabinet Ends DEI Programs, Pushes Education Control to States

Authors

5

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Transportation

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

3.66%chance

104271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5133

195

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

Jan 10, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.31%chance

242358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

828

Will a Tesla car or truck transport a SpaceX rocket by the end of 2029?

Dec 12, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.31%chance

371949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

946

Will flying cars become a widespread mode of individual transportation before 2032?

Feb 7, 6:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6.79%chance

211456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2313

824

Will there be <5hr UK-Australia public transport by 2033?

Sep 8, 2:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.22%chance

14827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

752

91

Will commercial space travel become a common mode of transportation for the general public by 2030?

Jan 10, 12:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.38%chance

10774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

638

125

When will the Tees Transporter Bridge be in use again?

Jun 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

2698

OptionProbability

After 2033

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2026

2025

24

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

8

1

Will an organisation offer suborbital point-to-point transportation before 2030?

Oct 19, 2:32 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

29.35%chance

9124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

127

Will an oblique wing aircraft enter service for civilian transportation or military purposes by 2050?

Jan 21, 8:00 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

51.6%chance

573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

117

Will an organisation offer suborbital point-to-point transportation before 2040?

Oct 19, 2:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

71.89%chance

461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

47

Will an organisation offer suborbital point-to-point transportation before 2035?

Oct 19, 2:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

79.91%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

25

Will lighter than air airships transport >1M passengers total before 2045?

Jun 21, 2:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.91%chance

228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

86

58

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