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Prediction markets for TRY
OptionVotes
1688
650
Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?
Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM
19543677
OptionProbability
62
24
9
5
Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?
Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM
11.79%chance
354112
OptionVotes
2735
366
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
Mar 30, 11:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27.07%chance
592516
OptionVotes
1079
947
Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?
Nov 14, 12:10 AMNov 8, 7:59 AM
24.48%chance
171964
OptionVotes
1811
587
If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?
Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
28.7%chance
261864
OptionVotes
1013
926
If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?
Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
70.71%chance
321418
OptionVotes
1011
953
In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.01%chance
411153
OptionVotes
1265
930
If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?
Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM
68.15%chance
14493
OptionVotes
1054
965
If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?
Mar 25, 9:12 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
23.77%chance
11338
OptionVotes
1217
907
Will the first Superintelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (including if only for mammals)?
Aug 18, 10:58 PMAug 18, 10:57 PM
60.71%chance
7300
OptionVotes
1243
805
Will the first Super Intelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (for any species) ?
Aug 18, 10:56 PMAug 18, 10:56 PM
51.44%chance
392
OptionVotes
1079
1022
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