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Prediction markets for TRY
OptionVotes
1778
623
OptionVotes
2587
387
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
Mar 30, 11:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27.07%chance
592516
OptionVotes
1079
947
Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?
Nov 14, 12:10 AMNov 8, 7:59 AM
25.53%chance
171914
OptionVotes
1708
586
If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?
Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
28.7%chance
261864
OptionVotes
1013
926
If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?
Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
71.58%chance
301306
OptionVotes
992
976
In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.66%chance
411103
OptionVotes
1215
939
If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?
Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM
68.15%chance
14493
OptionVotes
1054
965
If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?
Mar 25, 9:12 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
23.77%chance
11338
OptionVotes
1217
907
Will the first Superintelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (including if only for mammals)?
Aug 18, 10:58 PMAug 18, 10:57 PM
59.93%chance
7280
OptionVotes
1223
818
Will I think that a model or service I try is good enough to write my blog from my notes before the end of the year?
Feb 20, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.12%chance
7195
OptionVotes
1172
853
Will the first Super Intelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (for any species) ?
Aug 18, 10:56 PMAug 18, 10:56 PM
51.44%chance
392
OptionVotes
1079
1022
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